Is the Market About To Stage A Huge Rally?
By Michael Ruger, CFP®
Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Greenbush Financial Group
If the recent market volatility has made you uneasy, you’re not alone. Over the last few weeks, markets have reacted to rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tension in Iran. When volatility returns after a relatively calm period, it can feel like something is seriously wrong, but history tells us this is a normal part of investing, and specifically in this case, the market could be poised to rally in the coming weeks.
In this article, we’ll cover:
Forces at work in the market that have created the recent selloff
Whether the market may be near a bottom
What assets classes are performing well YTD in 2026
Charts to guide us as to where the market could go from here
What’s Causing the Market Sell-Off?
The recent market pullback hasn’t been caused by just one issue, but rather a combination of global events and economic pressures.
The biggest driver has been the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed oil prices significantly higher. At the start of the year, oil was around $57 per barrel, and as of March 23, 2026, oil has risen to roughly $90 per barrel. When oil prices rise that quickly:
The cost of transporting goods increases
The cost of producing goods increases
Inflation fears begin to rise
The Federal Reserve becomes less likely to cut interest rates
This is why markets have reacted negatively in the short term.
However, based on analyst expectations, there is a high probability that the Iran conflict will be resolved in the reasonably near future. If that happens, oil prices could fall, transportation costs could decline, and inflation fears could ease, which could put the Federal Reserve back on a path toward lowering interest rates.
And that combination has historically been very positive for markets.
It’s also important to remember that we’ve seen this movie before. Recent geopolitical events involving Greenland and Venezuela caused short-term market drops, but the markets recovered very quickly once those situations stabilized. Geopolitical events tend to create temporary volatility, not permanent declines.
An Interesting Trend in 2026: Value vs. Growth
One of the most interesting trends this year has been the difference between large cap growth and large cap value.
As of last week:
Large cap growth is down about 7.9% year-to-date
Large cap value is up about 2.2% year-to-date
This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Large cap value includes sectors like energy, which have performed very well due to rising oil prices. Meanwhile, many large cap growth and technology companies, including several of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, have pulled back this year.
This is a great real-world reminder of why diversification matters.
When one part of the market struggles, another part of the market may be doing well. A properly diversified portfolio helps smooth out the ride when unexpected events occur.
Remember: Volatility Is Normal
The chart below is a great reminder that selloffs and market volatility are normal even during good years for the stock market.
The chart shows two things going back to 1980:
The gray bars show the S&P 500 return for the full year
The red dots show the largest drop that occurred at some point during that year
For example:
In 2025, the market finished up 16%, but at one point during the year, it dropped by 19%
In 2024, the market finished up 23%, but had an 8% correction during the year
When you look at the last 45 years, a clear pattern emerges:
Most years the market finishes positive, but most years also have a signification correction at some point during the year.
This is the price of admission for investing. You don’t get the long-term returns of the market without experiencing volatility along the way.
Emotions and Panic Are the Enemy of Good Investment Decisions
The media and the markets will give investors something to worry about every single day.
Some of those concerns are legitimate. Many are not. The key is determining whether a current event represents a temporary disruption or a permanent change to the global economy.
Right now, the concern is Iran, oil prices, and inflation. A few months from now, it will likely be something else. That has always been the case, and it will continue to be the case.
One thing investors cannot forget is that we are currently in a massive wave of innovation and growth driven by artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics. These trends will likely have a much larger long-term impact on markets than most short-term geopolitical events.
This doesn’t mean markets won’t fall. They will.
It doesn’t mean volatility won’t happen. It will.
It doesn’t mean corrections won’t occur. They will.
But it does mean that panic-driven decisions are often the biggest mistake investors make.
Is the Market Close to the Bottom?
No one can consistently predict the exact bottom of a market correction. However, market declines driven by geopolitical events and oil shocks have historically recovered relatively quickly once the situation stabilizes. The Iran conflict is not likely be to any different.
If the Iran conflict cools down, and:
Oil prices fall
Transportation costs fall
Inflation fears ease
Then the current market pullback could reverse faster than many investors expect.
Market pullbacks often create opportunities that weren’t available when markets were at all-time highs just a few months ago.
About Michael……...
Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.
