2026 Bear Market Retirement Planning: How to Avoid Running Out of Money

Retiring during a market downturn can significantly impact how long your retirement savings last due to sequence of returns risk. When withdrawals begin during a declining market, losses can compound and reduce long-term portfolio sustainability. At Greenbush Financial Group, our analysis shows that implementing the right withdrawal, allocation, and income strategies can help protect your retirement plan even in volatile markets.

Why Retiring in a Down Market Is Risky

The primary concern is not just market losses, but when those losses occur.

Sequence of Returns Risk Explained

Sequence risk refers to the timing of market returns relative to your withdrawals.

• Negative returns early in retirement can permanently reduce your portfolio

• Withdrawals during downturns lock in losses

• Recovery becomes more difficult over time

Example

Two retirees with identical portfolios and average returns can have very different outcomes depending on whether market losses occur early or later in retirement.

At Greenbush Financial Group, this is one of the most important risks we plan for when building retirement income strategies.

Strategy 1: Build a Cash Reserve Before Retirement

One of the most effective ways to protect your portfolio is to avoid selling investments during a downturn.

Recommended Approach

• Maintain 1–3 years of living expenses in cash or short-term investments

• Use this reserve instead of withdrawing from stocks during market declines

Why It Works

• Gives your portfolio time to recover

• Reduces the need to sell assets at depressed prices

• Provides psychological comfort during volatility

Strategy 2: Use a Bucket Strategy for Income

Segmenting your portfolio into different “buckets” can help manage risk.

Example Structure

Short-Term Bucket (0–3 years)

• Cash, money markets, short-term bonds

• Used for immediate income needs

Mid-Term Bucket (3–10 years)

• Bonds, conservative investments

• Provides stability and income

Long-Term Bucket (10+ years)

• Stocks and growth assets

• Designed to outpace inflation

At Greenbush Financial Group, we often use this framework to align investments with time horizons and reduce sequence risk.

Strategy 3: Reduce Withdrawals During Down Markets

Flexibility is critical when markets are volatile.

Key Adjustments

• Temporarily reduce discretionary spending

• Delay large purchases

• Pause inflation increases on withdrawals

Example

Instead of withdrawing $60,000 during a downturn, reducing withdrawals to $50,000 can significantly improve long-term sustainability.

Strategy 4: Delay Social Security If Possible

Social Security provides a guaranteed, inflation-adjusted income stream.

Why Delaying Helps

• Increases your monthly benefit

• Reduces reliance on portfolio withdrawals early

• Provides more stable income later in retirement

Planning Insight

Using portfolio assets early while delaying Social Security can sometimes improve long-term outcomes. 

Strategy 5: Rebalance and Stay Invested

Market downturns can create opportunities to rebalance your portfolio.

Key Principles

• Avoid panic selling

• Rebalance to maintain target allocation

• Take advantage of lower asset prices

At Greenbush Financial Group, maintaining discipline during downturns is often the difference between success and failure in retirement planning.

Strategy 6: Consider Part-Time Income or Flexible Retirement

Even a small amount of income can reduce pressure on your portfolio.

Benefits

• Reduces withdrawal rate

• Allows more time for investments to recover

• Provides flexibility in spending

Example

Earning $10,000–$20,000 per year can significantly extend portfolio longevity.

Strategy 7: Tax Planning During Market Downturns

Down markets can create tax planning opportunities.

Strategies

• Harvest capital losses to offset gains

• Convert IRA funds to Roth at lower market values

• Manage taxable income to stay in lower tax brackets

At Greenbush Financial Group, we often see that downturns can be an ideal time to implement tax-efficient strategies.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Selling investments out of fear

• Maintaining rigid withdrawal strategies

• Ignoring tax planning opportunities

• Failing to adjust spending

• Overreacting to short-term market movements

A Real-World Scenario

Scenario

• Retiree with $1,000,000 portfolio

• Market declines 20% in first year

• Withdraws $50,000 annually

Without Adjustments

• Portfolio drops significantly

• Recovery becomes difficult

With Strategic Adjustments

• Uses cash reserve instead of selling stocks

• Reduces withdrawals temporarily

• Rebalances portfolio

• Delays Social Security

Result

• Improved long-term sustainability

• Reduced sequence risk impact

Final Thoughts

Retiring during a down market does not mean your plan will fail, but it usually does require adjustments. The key is managing withdrawals, maintaining flexibility, and staying disciplined with your investment strategy.

At Greenbush Financial Group, our analysis shows that retirees who proactively adapt their strategy during downturns are far more likely to preserve their wealth and maintain sustainable income throughout retirement.

Rob Mangold

About Rob……...

Hi, I’m Rob Mangold. I’m the Chief Operating Officer at Greenbush Financial Group and a contributor to the Money Smart Board blog. We created the blog to provide strategies that will help our readers personally, professionally, and financially. Our blog is meant to be a resource. If there are questions that you need answered, please feel free to join in on the discussion or contact me directly.

1. Is it a bad idea to retire in a down market?
   Not necessarily, but it increases sequence of returns risk and requires careful planning.
2. How much cash and short-term fixed income should I have in retirement?
   Typically 1 to 3 years of living expenses.
3. Should I stop withdrawals during a downturn?
   Not entirely, but reducing withdrawals can improve long-term outcomes.
4. Can a market downturn ruin my retirement plan?
   It can if not managed properly, especially in the early years of retirement.
5. What is the best strategy during a market downturn?
   Maintain a cash reserve, adjust withdrawals, stay invested, and focus on long-term planning.