A Market Selloff Triggered By A Fed Policy Error
The Fed made a significant policy error last week by deciding not to cut the Fed Funds rate and the stock market is now responding to that error via the selloff we have seen over the past week. Unfortunately, this policy error is nothing new. Throughout history, the Fed typically waits too long to begin reducing interest rates after inflation has already abated and they seem to be on that path again.
So Where Is The Recession?
Toward the end of 2022 and for the first half of this year, many economics and market analysts were warning investors of a recession starting within the first 6 months of 2023. Despite those widespread warnings, the S&P 500 Index is up 16% YTD as of July 3, 2023, notching one of the strongest 6-month starts to a year in history. So why have so many people been wrong about their prediction and off by so much?
2023 Market Outlook: A New Problem Emerges
While the markets are still very focused on the battle with inflation, a new problem is going to emerge in 2023 that is going to take it’s place. The markets have experienced a relief rally in November and December but we expect the rally to fade quickly going into 2023.
This Market Rally Could Be A Bear Trap!! Here’s why……
The recent stock market rally could end up being a bear market trap for investors. If it is, this would be the 4th bear market trap of 2022.
What Is An Inverted Yield Curve?
Today, August 14, 2019, the main part of the yield curveinverted. This is an important event because an inverted yield curve hashistorically been a very good predictor of a coming recession. In this articlewe will review
Will There Be A Santa Claus Rally This Year?
Going back 120 years, December has traditionally been a very good month for the stock market. Within the last 120 years the S&P 500 has been positive in December 73% of the time. The Russell 2000, which is the index for small cap stocks, has been up 87% of the time in December. This boost in the final month of the year is known to traders as the
Watch These Two Market Indicators
While a roaring economy typically rewards equity investors, the GDP growth rate in the U.S. has continued to grow at that same 2.2% pace that we have seen since the recovery began in March 2009. When you compare that to the GDP growth rates of past economic expansions, some may classify the current growth rate as “sub par”. As in the tale of the
Where Are We In The Market Cycle?
Before you can determine where you are going, you first have to know where you are now. Seems like a simple concept. A similar approach is taken when we are developing the investment strategy for our client portfolios. The question more specifically that we are trying to answer is “where are we at in the market cycle?” Is there more upside
