A Market Selloff Triggered By A Fed Policy Error
The Fed made a significant policy error last week by deciding not to cut the Fed Funds rate and the stock market is now responding to that error via the selloff we have seen over the past week. Unfortunately, this policy error is nothing new. Throughout history, the Fed typically waits too long to begin reducing interest rates after inflation has already abated and they seem to be on that path again.
2024 Market Outlook: Investors Are In For A Few Surprises
Investors have to be ready for many surprises in 2024. While the US economy was able to escape a recession in 2023, if anything, it has increased the chances of either a recession or a market pullback in the first half of 2024.
So Where Is The Recession?
Toward the end of 2022 and for the first half of this year, many economics and market analysts were warning investors of a recession starting within the first 6 months of 2023. Despite those widespread warnings, the S&P 500 Index is up 16% YTD as of July 3, 2023, notching one of the strongest 6-month starts to a year in history. So why have so many people been wrong about their prediction and off by so much?
Why Did Silicon Valley Bank Fail? The Contagion Risk
This week, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in the United States, became insolvent in a matter of 48 hours. The bank now sits in the hands of the FDIC which has sent ripples across the financial markets.
2023 Market Outlook: A New Problem Emerges
While the markets are still very focused on the battle with inflation, a new problem is going to emerge in 2023 that is going to take it’s place. The markets have experienced a relief rally in November and December but we expect the rally to fade quickly going into 2023.
This Market Rally Could Be A Bear Trap!! Here’s why……
The recent stock market rally could end up being a bear market trap for investors. If it is, this would be the 4th bear market trap of 2022.
What Causes Bonds To Lose Value In Certain Market Environments?
Bonds are often revered as a safe investment compared to stocks but make no mistake, bonds like other investments are not risk-free, and there are certain market environments where they can lose value. As I write this article in May 2022, the Aggregate Bond Index is currently down 8% year to date.
