Russia & Ukraine: Where Does The Stock Market Go From Here?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to add uncertainty to global markets. It’s left investors asking the following questions:

• What is the most likely outcome of the invasion?

• How will this impact the U.S. stock market and global economy?

• How high will oil prices go?

• Should the U.S. be worried about a Russia cyberattack?

• What is China’s role in this conflict?

• Will the stock and bond market crash in Russia create a global liquidity event?

• Does this change the Fed’s timeline for interest rate hikes?

• Do we expect a relief rally or the market selloff to continue?

We will provide you with our answers to these questions in this market update.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Buying A Second House In Retirement

More and more retirees are making the decision to keep their primary residence in retirement but also own a second residence, whether that be a lake house, ski lodge, or a condo down south.  Maintaining two houses in retirement requires a lot of additional planning because you need to be able to answer the following questions:

• Do you have enough retirement savings to maintain two houses in retirement?

• Should you purchase the house before you officially retire or after?

• Are you planning on paying for the house in cash or taking a mortgage?

• If you are taking mortgage, where will the down payment come from?

• Will you have the option to claim domicile in another state for tax purposes?

• Should you setup a trust to own your real estate in retirement?

Adequate Retirement Savings   

 The most important question is do you have enough retirement income and assets to support the carrying cost of two houses in retirement?   This requires you to run detailed retirement projection to determine what your total expense will be in retirement including the expenses associates with the second house, and the spending down of your assets over your life expectancy to make sure you do not run out of money.  Here are some of the most common mistakes that we see retirees make:

1. They underestimated the impact of inflation.  The ongoing costs associated with maintaining a house such as property taxes, utilities, association dues, maintenance, homeowners insurance, water bills, etc, tend to go up each year.  While it may look like you can afford both houses now, if those expenses go up by 3% per year, will you have enough income and assets to pay those higher cost in the future?

2.  They forget about taxes.  If you will have to take larger distributions out of your pre-tax retirement accounts to maintain the second house, those larger distributions could push you into a higher tax bracket, cause your Medicare premiums to increase, lose property tax credits, or change the amount of your social security benefits that are taxable income.

3.  A house is an illiquid asset.  When you look at your total net worth, you have to be careful how much of your net worth is tied up in real estate.  Remember, you are retired, you are no longer receiving a paycheck, if the economy hits a big recession, and your retirement accounts take a big hit, you may be forced to sell that second house when everyone else is also trying to sell their house.  It could put you a in a difficult situation if you do not have adequate retirement assets outside of your real estate holdings.

Should You Purchase A Second House Before You Retire?

 Many retirees wrestle with the decision as to whether to purchase their second house before they retire or after they have retired.   There are two primary advantages to purchasing the second house prior to retirement:

1. If you plan on taking a mortgage to buy the second house, it is usually easier to get a mortgage while you are still working.  Banks typically care more about your income than they do about your level of assets. We have seen clients retire, have over $2M in retirement assets, and have difficulties getting a mortgage, due to a lack of income.   

2. There can be large expenses associated with acquiring a new piece of real estate. You move into your second house and you learn that it needs new appliances, a new roof, or you have to buy furniture to fill the house.  We typically encourage our clients to get these big expenses out of the way before their paychecks stop in case they incur larger expenses than anticipated.

Mortgage or No Mortgage?

 The decision of whether or not to take a mortgage on the second house is an important one.  Sometimes it makes sense to take a mortgage and sometimes is doesn’t. Many retirees are hesitant to take a mortgage because they realize having a mortgage in retirement means higher annual expenses. While we generally encourage our client to reduce their debt by as much as possible leading up to retirement, there are situations where taking out a mortgage to buy that second house makes sense.

 But it’s not for the reason that you may think.  It’s not because you may be able to get a mortgage rate of 3% and keep your retirement assets invested with hopes of achieving a return of over 3%.   While many retirees are willing to take on that risk, we remind our clients that you will be retired, therefore there is no more money going into your retirement accounts.  If you are wrong and the value of your retirement accounts drop, now you have less in assets, no more contributions going in, and you have a new mortgage payment. 

In certain situations, it makes sense to take a mortgage for tax purposes.  If most of your retirement saving are in pre-tax sources like Traditional IRA’s or 401(k)’s, you withdrawal a large amount from those accounts in a single year to buy your second house, you may avoid having to take a mortgage, but it may also trigger a huge tax bill.  For example, if you want to purchase a second house in Florida and the purchase price is $300,000.  You take a distribution out of your traditional IRA to purchase the house in full, you will have federal and state income tax on the full $300,000, meaning if you are married filer you may have to withdrawal over $400,000 to get to the $300,000 that you need after tax to purchase the house.  

If you are pre-tax heavy, it may be better to take out a mortgage, withdrawal just the down payment out of your IRA or preferably from an after tax source, and then you can make the mortgage payments with monthly withdrawals out of your IRA account. This spreads the tax liability of the house purchase over multiple years potentially keeping you out of those higher tax brackets.

But outside of optimizing a tax strategy, if you have adequate after-tax resources to purchase the second house in full, more times than not, we will encourage retirees to go that route because we are big fans of lowering your fixed expenses by as much as possible in retirement.

Planning For The Down Payment

 If we meet with someone who plans to purchase a second house in retirement and we know they are going to have to take a mortgage, we have to start planning for the down payment on that house.  Depending on what their retirement picture looks like we may:

• Determine what amount of their cash reserves they could safely commit to the down payment

• Reduce contributions to retirement accounts to accumulate more cash

• If their tax situation allows, take distributions from certain types of accounts prior to retirement

• Weigh the pros and cons of using equity in their primary residence for the down payment

• If they have permanent life insurance policies, discuss pros and cons of taking a loan against the policy

Becoming A Resident of Another State

 If you maintain two separate houses in different states, you may have the opportunity to have your retirement income taxed in the more tax favorable state.  This topic could be an article all in itself, but it’s a tax strategy that should not be overlook because it can have a sizable impact on your retirement projections.  If your primary residence is in New York, which is a very tax heavy state, and you buy a condo in Florida and you are splitting your time between the two houses in retirement, knowing what it requires to claim domicile in Florida could save you a lot of money in state taxes.  To learn more about this I would recommend watching the following two videos that we created specifically on this topic:

 Video 1:  Will Moving From New York to Florida In Retirement Save You Taxes?

Video 2:  How Do I Change My State Residency For Tax Purposes?

 Should A Trust Own Your Second House

 The final topic that we are going to cover are the pros and cons of a trust owning your house in retirement.  For any house that you plan to own during the retirement years, it often makes sense to have the house owned by either a Revocable Trust or Irrevocable Trust.   Trust are not just for the ultra wealthy.  Trust have practical uses for everyday families just as protecting the house from the spend down process triggered by a long term care event or to avoid the house having to go through probate when you or your spouse pass away.  Again, this is a relate topic but one that requires its own video to understand the difference between Revocable Trust and Irrevocable Trusts:

 Video:  Should You Put Your House In A Trust?

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Should You Pay Down Debt or Invest Idle Cash?

When you have a large cash reserve, should you take that opportunity to pay down debt or should you invest it?  The answer is “it depends”.  It depends on: 

• What is the interest rate on your debt?

• What is the funding level of your emergency fund?

• Do you have any big one-time expenses planned within the next 12 months?

• What is the status of your financial goals? (college savings, retirement, house purchase)

• How close are you to retirement?

• What type of economic environment are you in?

• Understanding the debt secret of the super wealthy

All too often, we see people make the mistake of investing money that they should be using to pay down debt, and this statement is coming from an investment advisor.  In this article, I am going to walk you through the conversation that we have with our clients when trying to determine the best use of their idle cash.

What Is The Interest Rate On Your Debt?

 Our first question is typically, what is the current interest rate on your debt?  As you would expect, the higher the interest rate, the higher the payoff priority.  As financial planners, we look at the interest rate on debt as a risk-free rate of return, similar to a return that you might receive on a bank CD or a money market account.  If you have a credit card with a balance of $10,000 and the interest rate is 15%, you are paying that credit card company $1,500 in interest each year.  If you use your $10,000 in idle cash to payoff you credit card balance, you get to keep that $1,500.  We considered it a “risk-free” rate of return because you don’t have to take any risk to obtain it.  By paying off the balance, you are guaranteed to not have to pay the credit card company that $1,500 in interest.

If instead you decided to invest that money, you would have to invest in something that earns over a 15% annual rate of return to be ahead of the game.  To obtain a 15% rate of return is most likely going to involve taking a high level of risk, meaning you could lose some or all of your $10,000 investment so it’s not an apple to apple comparison because the risk level is different.  I will bluntly ask clients: “can you get a bank CD right now that pays you 15%?”  When they say “no way”, then I repeat the guidance to pay down the debt because every dollar that you pay toward the debt is receiving a 15% rate of return which you are not paying to the credit card company.

A Tough Decision

 A 15% interest rate on debt makes the decision pretty easy but what happens when we are talking about a mortgage that carries a 3% interest rate. Clearly a more difficult decision.  Someone who is 40 years old, that has 25 years until retirement might ask, “why would I use my cash to pay down the mortgage with a 3% interest rate when I could be earning 8% per year plus in the stock market over the next 25 years?”  The answer can be found in the rest of the variables below.

Emergency Fund

 When unexpected events happen in life, it is common for those unexpected events to cost money, which is why we encourage our clients to maintain an emergency fund.  Maintaining an adequate cash reserve prevents these unexpected financial events from disrupting your plans for retirement, paying  for college, from having to liquidate investments at an inopportune time in the market, or worse to go into debt to pay those expenses.  While it is painful to see cash sitting there in a savings account earning minimal interest, it serves the purpose of insulting your overall financial plan from setbacks cause by unplanned events which in turn increases your probability of achieving your financial goals over the long term.

What is the right level of cash to fund an emergency fund?  In most cases, we recommend 4 to 5 months of your living expenses.  There is a balance between having adequate cash reserves and holding too much cash.  There is an opportunity cost associated with holding too much cash.  By holding cash earning less than 1% in interest, you may be giving up the opportunity to earn a higher return on that cash, whether that involves investing it or paying down debt with it. 

Here is a common scenario, let’s say someone has $50,000 in cash in their savings account, and 4 months of living expenses is $30,000, that means there is $20,000 in excess cash that could be potentially earning a higher return than it sitting in their bank account.  If they are willing to accept some risk, they may be willing to invest that $20,000 in an attempt to generate a higher return on that idle cash, or the cash may be used to fund a college savings account or retirement account which could carry tax benefits as well as advancing one or more of their personal financial goals. 

But what if you don’t want to take any risk with that additional $20,000?  If you have a mortgage with a 3% interest rate, by applying that $20,000 toward the mortgage, it is technically earning 3% because you are not paying that 3% interest to the bank.   Since the interest rate on the mortgage is probably higher than the interest rate you are receiving in your savings account, that cash is working harder for you, and you have the added benefit of paying off your mortgage sooner.

Big One-Time Expenses

 Once we have determined the appropriate funding level of a client’s emergency fund and there is excess cash over and above that amount, our next question is “do you have any larger one-time expenses that you foresee over the next 12 months?”  For example, you may be planning a kitchen renovation, purchase of a house, or tuition payments for a child.  If you will need that excess cash to meet expenses within the next 12 months, you may want to just hold onto the cash.  If you use the cash to pay down debt, you won’t have the cash to meet those anticipated expenses in the future, or if you invest the cash, and the value of the investment drops, you may not have time to wait for the investment to recover the lost value before you need to liquidate the investment.  

Typically, when we talk about investing, whether it’s in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or some other type of security, it involves taking more risk than just sitting in cash.  The shorter the timeline on the one-time expense, the more risk you take on by investing the cash.  Historically, riskier asset classes like stocks behave in more consistent patterns over 10+ year time periods, but it’s impossible to predict how a specific stock or even a bond mutual fund will perform over a specific 3 month period.

Now, if interest rates ever get higher again, and you can find a 6 month or 1 year CD, or money market that pays a decent interest rate, then you may consider allocating some of that short term excess to work in a guaranteed security.  Be careful of products liked fixed annuities, even through they may carry an attractive guaranteed interest rate, many annuities have surrender fees if you cash in the annuity prior to a specified number of years.

Status Of Your Various Financial Goals

 Our next series of question revolves around assessing the status of a client’s various financial goals:

• When do you plan to retire? Are your retirement savings adequate?

• Do you have children that will be attending college? Have you started college savings accounts?

• You just bought a house. Do you have an adequate amount of term life insurance?

• Do you expect to be in a higher tax bracket this year? We may need to find ways to reduce your taxes.

• Do you have estate documents in place like wills, health proxies, and a power of attorney?

• What are your various financial goals over the next 10 years?

If we find that there is a shortfall in one of these areas, we may advise clients to use their excess cash to shore up a weakness in their overall financial picture. For example, if we meet with a client that has 3 children, ages 8, 5, and 3, and we ask them if they plan to help their children to pay for college, and they say “yes” but they have not yet determined how much financial aid they may receive, how much college is going to cost, and the best type of account to save money in to meet that goal, we will probably run projections for them, discuss how 529 accounts work, and potentially allocate some of their excess cash to fund those accounts.

How Close Are You To Retirement?

 One factor that normally weighs heavily on our guidance as to whether someone should use excess cash to pay down debt or invest it is how close they are to retirement.   Regardless of the market environment that we are in, we typically encourage our clients to reduce their fixed expenses as much as possible leading up to retirement.  But when the stock market is going up by 10%+ and someone has $50,000 left on a mortgage with a 3% interest rate, they will ask me, why would I use my excess cash to pay down debt with a 3% interest rate when I’m earning a lot more keeping it invested in the market?

My response.  I have been doing retirement projections for a very long time and when we do these projections, we are making assumptions about:

• Annual rates of return on your investments

• Inflation rates

• Tax rates in the future

• The fate of a broken social security system

• How long you are going to live?

• Probability of a long-term care event

These assumptions are estimated guesses based on historical data but who’s to say they are going to be right.  In retirement you don’t have control over the stock market, inflation, or unexpected health events.  The only thing you have full control over in retirement is how much you spend.  The lower your annual expenses are, the more flexibility you will have within your plan, should one or more of the assumptions in your plan fall short of expectations.  There will always be recessions but recessions are a lot more scary when you are retired and drawing money out of your retirement account, while at the same time your accounts may be losing value due to a drop in the stock or bond market.  If you have lower expenses, it may allow you to reduce the distributions from your retirement accounts while you are waiting for the market to recover, which could greatly reduce the risk of running out of assets in retirement.  

Type of Market Environment

 While no one has a crystal ball, there are definitely market environments that we as investment advisors view as more risky than others.  When economic data is providing us with mixed signals, there are geopolitical events unfolding that we have no way of predicting the outcome, or we are navigating through a challenging economic environment, it increases the risk level of investing excess cash in an effort to generate a return greater than the interest rate that someone may be paying on an outstanding debt.   We definitely take that into account when advising clients whether to invest their cash or to use it to pay down debt.

 The Debt Secret of The Super Wealthy

 I have recognized a trend as it pertains to high net worth individual and how they invest, which is a concept that can be applied at any level of wealth.   Having less debt, can provide individuals with the opportunity to take greater risk, which in turn can lead to a faster and greater accumulation of wealth.

If someone has no debt and they have $90,000 in cash to invest, because they have no debt, they may not need any of that cash to meet their future expense.  Assuming they have a high tolerance for risk, they may choose to invest in 3 start-up companies, $30,000 each.   Since investing in start-ups is known to be very risky, all three companies could go bankrupt.  If 2 companies go bust, but the third company gets acquired by a public company that results in a 10x return on the investment, that $30,000 initial investment grows to $300,000, which subsidizes the losses from the other 2 companies, and still generates a giant return for the investor.   

Someone with debt and corresponding higher fixed expenses to service the debt, may find it difficult and even unwise to enter into a similar investment strategy, because if they lose all or a portion of their $90,000 initial investment, it could upend their entire financial picture.

Just an additional note, investors that are successful with these higher risk strategies do not blindly throw money around at high risk investments.  They do their homework but having no debt provides them with the opportunity to adopt investment strategies that may be out of reach of the average investor. 

In summary, there are situation where it will make sense to invest idle cash in lieu if paying down debt but there are also situations that may not be as obvious, where it makes to pay down debt instead of investing the idle cash.  Before just playing the interest rate game, it’s important to weigh all of these factors before making the decision as to the best use of your idle cash.  

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

How To Pay 0% Tax On Capital Gains Income

When you sell a stock, mutual fund, investment property, or a business, if you have made money on that investment, the IRS is kindly waiting for a piece of that gain in the form of capital gains tax.  Capital gains are taxed differently than the ordinary income that you received via your paycheck or pass-through income from your business.   Unlike ordinary income, which has a series of tax brackets that range from 10% to 37% in 2022, capital gains income is taxed at a flat rate at the federal level.   Most taxpayers are aware of the 15% long term capital gains tax rate but very few know about the 0% capital gains tax rate and how to properly time the sale of your invest to escape having to pay tax on the gain. 

Short-term vs Long-Term Gains

Before I get into this tax strategy, you first have to understand the difference between “short-term” and “long-term” capital gains.  Short-term capital gains apply to any investment that you bought and sold in less than a 12 month period.  Example, if I buy a stock today for $1,000 and I sell it three months later for $3,000, I would have a $2,000 short-term capital gain.  Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income like your paycheck. There is no special tax treatment for short-term capital gains and the 0% tax strategy does not apply.

Long-term capital gains on the other hand are for investments that you bought and then sold more than 12 months later.  When I say “investments” I’m using that in broad terms. It could be a business, investment property, stock, etc.   When you sell these investments at a gain and you have satisfied the 1 year holding period, you receive the benefit of paying tax on the gain at the preferential “long-term capital gains rate”.

What Are The Long Term Capital Gains Rates?

For federal tax purposes, there are 3 long term capital gains rates:  0%, 15%, and 20%.  What rate you pay is determined by your filing status and your level of taxable income in the year that you sold the investment subject to the long term capital gains tax. For 2022, below are the capital gains brackets for single filers and joint filers.

As you will see on the chart, if you are a single filer and your taxable income is below $41,675 or a joint filer with taxable income below $83,350, all or a portion of your long term capital gains income may qualify for the federal 0% capital gains rate.

An important note about state taxes on capital gains income is that each state has a different way of handling capital gains income. New York state is a “no mercy state” meaning they do not offer a special tax rate for long term capital gains. For NYS income tax purposes, your long term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income.  But let’s continue our story with the fed tax rules which are typically the lion share of the tax liability.

In a straight forward example, assume you live in New York, you are married, and your total taxable income for the year is $50,000.  If you realize $25,000 in long term capital gains, you will not pay any federal tax on the $25,000 in capital gain income but you will have to pay NYS income tax on the $25,000.

Don’t Stop Reading This Article If Your Taxable Income Is Above The Thresholds

For many taxpayers, their income is well above these income thresholds.  But I have good news, with some maneuvering, there are legit strategies that may allow you to take advantage of the 0% long term capital gains tax rate even if your taxable income is above the $41,675 single filer and $83,350 joint filer thresholds.  I will include multiple examples below as to how our high net worth clients are able to access the 0% long term capital gains rate but I first have to build the foundation as to how it all works. 

Using 401(k) Contributions To Lower Your Taxable Income

In years that you will have long term capital gains, there are strategies that you can use to reduce your taxable income to get under the 0% thresholds.  Here is an example, I had a client sell a rental property this year and the sale triggered a long term capital gain for $40,000.  They were married and had a combined income of $110,000.  If they did nothing, at the federal level they would just have to pay the 15% long term capital gains tax which results in a $6,000 tax liability.  Instead, we implemented the following strategy to move the $40,000 of capital gains into the 0% tax rate.

Once they received the sale proceeds from the house, we had them deposit that money to their checking account, and then go to their employer and instruct them to max out their 401(k) pre-tax contributions for the remainder of the year.  Since they were both over 50, they were each able to defer $27,000 (total of $54,000). They used the proceeds from the house sale to supplement the income that they were losing in their paychecks due to the higher pre-tax 401(k) deferrals.  Not only did they reduce their taxable income for the year by $54,000, saving a bunch in taxes, but they also were able to move the full $40,000 in long term capital gain income into the 0% tax bracket.  Here’s how the numbers work:

Adjusted Gross Income (AGI):      $110,000

Pre-tax 401(k) Contributions:         ($54,000)

Less Standard Deduction:              ($25,900)

Total Taxable Income:                     $30,100

In their case, they would be able to realize $53,250 in long term capital gains before they would have to start paying the 15% fed tax on that income ($83,350 – $30,100 = $53,250). Since they were below that threshold, they paid no federal income tax on the $40,000 saving them $6,000 in fed taxes.

“Filling The Bracket”

The strategy that I just described is called “filling the bracket”.  We find ways to reduce an individuals taxable income in the year that long term capital gains are realized to “fill up” as much of that 0% long-term capital gains tax rate that we can before it spills over into the 15% long-term capital gains rate.

More good news, it’s not an “all or none” calculation.  If you are married, have $60,000 in taxable income, and $100,000 in long term capital gains, a portion of your $100,000 in capital gains will be taxed at the 0% rate with the majority taxed at the 15% tax rate.  As you might have guessed the IRS is not going to let you get away with paying 0% on a $100,000 in long term capital gains because you maneuvered your taxable income into the 0% cap gain range. But in this case, $23,350 would be taxed at the 0% long term cap gain rate, and the reminder would be taxed at the 15% long term cap gain rate.

Do Capital Gains Bump Your Ordinary Income Into A Higher Bracket?

When explaining this “filling up the bracket” strategy to clients, the most common question I get is: “If long term capital gains count as taxable income, does that push my ordinary income into a higher tax bracket?”   The answer is “no”.  In the eyes of the IRS, capital gains income is determined to be earned “after” all of your other income sources.

In an extreme example, let’s say you have $70,000 in ordinary income and $200,000 in capital gains. If your total ordinary income was $70,000 and you file a joint tax return, your top fed tax bracket in 2022 would be 12%.  However, if the IRS decided to look at the $200,000 in capital gain income first and then put your ordinary income on top of that, your top federal tax bracket would now be 24%.  That would hurt tax wise. Luckily, it does not work that way.  Even if you realized $1M in long term capital gains, the $70,000 in ordinary income would be taxed at the same lower tax brackets since it was earned first in the eyes of the IRS.

Work With Your Accountant

Before I get into the more advanced strategies for how this filling up the brackets strategy is used, I cannot stress enough the importance of working with your tax advisor when executing these more complex tax strategies.  The tax system is complex and making a shift in one area could hurt you in another area.

Even though these strategies may lower the federal tax rate on your long-term capital gain income, capital gains will increase your AGI (adjusted gross income) for the year which could phase you out of certain deductions, tax credits, increase your Medicare premiums, reduce college financial aid, etc. Your accountant should be able to run tax projections for you in their software to play with the numbers to determine the ideal amount of long-term capital gains that can be realized in a given year without hurting the other aspects of your financial picture.

Strategy #1:  I’m Retiring

When people retire, in many cases, their taxable income drops because they no longer have their paycheck and they are typically supplementing their income with social security and distributions from their investment accounts.  This creates a tax planning opportunity because these taxpayers sometimes find themselves in the lowest tax bracket that they have been in over the past 30+ years.  Here are some of the common examples.

Example 1: The First Year Of Retirement

If you retire at the beginning of the calendar year, you may only have had a few months of paychecks, so your income may be lower in that year.  If you have built up cash in your savings account or if you have an after tax investment account that you can use to supplement your income for the remainder of the year to meet your expenses, this may create the opportunity to “fill up the bracket” and realize some long-term capital gains at a 0% federal tax rate in that year.

Example 2:  Lower Expenses In Retirement

We have had clients that were making $150,000 per year and then when they retire they only need $40,000 per year to live off of.  When you retire, the kids are typically through college, the mortgage is paid off, and your expenses drop so you need less income to supplement those expenses.   A portion of your social security will most likely be counted as taxable income but if you do not have a pension, you may have some wiggle room to realize a portion of your long-term capital gains as a 0% rate each year.

Assume this is a single filer. Here is how the numbers would work:

Social Security & IRA Taxable Income:     $40,000

Less Standard Deduction:                          ($12,000)

Total Taxable Income:                                $28,000

This individual would be able to realize $13,675 in long term capital gains each year at the 0% fed tax tax because the threshold is $41,675 and they are only showing $28,000 in taxable income.  Saving $2,051 in fed taxes.

Strategy #2:  Business Owner Experiences A Low Income Year

If you have been running a business for 5+ years, you have probably been through those one or two tough years where either revenue drops dramatically or the business incurs a lot of expenses in a single year, lowering your net profits.  Do not let these low taxable income years go to waste.  If you typically make $250,000+ per year and you have one of these low income years, start planning as soon as possible because once you cross that December 31st threshold, you have wasted a tax planning opportunity.  If you are showing no income for that year, you may want to talk to your accountant about realizing some long term capital gains in your brokerage account to realize those gains at a 0% tax rate.  Or you may want to consider processing a Roth conversion in that low tax year. There are a number of tax strategies that will allow you to make the most of that “bad year” income wise. 

Strategy #3: Leverage Cash Reserves and Brokerage Accounts

If you have been building up cash reserves or you have a brokerage account that you could sell some holdings without incurring big taxable gains, you may be able to use that as your income source for the year which could result in little to no taxable income showing for that tax year.  We have seen both retirees and business owners use this strategy.

Business owners have control over when expenses will be realized which influences how much taxable income is being passed through to the business owner.  If you can overload expenses into a single tax year instead of splitting it evenly between two separate tax years, that could create some tax planning opportunities.

Strategy #4: Moving To Another State

It’s common for individuals to move to more tax friendly states in retirement. If you live in a state now, like New York, that makes you pay tax on long term capital gain income, and you plan to move to Florida next year and change your state of domicile, you may want to wait to realize your capital gains until you are resident of Florida to avoid having to pay state tax on that income. This has nothing to do with the 0% Fed tax strategy but it might reduce your state income tax bill on those capital gains.

Bottom Line

There are few strategies that allow you to pay 0% in federal taxes on any type of gain.  If you are a high income earner, this strategy may not work for you every year but there may be opportunities to use them at some point if income drops or when you enter the retirement years.  Again, don’t let those lower income years go to waste. Work with your accountant and determine if “filling the bracket” is the right move for you. 

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Will The January Market Selloff Continue?

The markets have experienced an intense selloff in the first three weeks of 2022. As of January 21st, the S&P 500 Index is down over 7% for the month.  There are only a few times in the past 10 years that the index has dropped by more the 5% in a single month.  That begs the questions, “After those big monthly declines, historically, what happens next?” Continued decline? Market recovery?  We are going to answer that question in this article

 The recent selloff has also been widespread.  The selloff in January has negatively impacted stocks, bonds, crypto, while inflation continues to erode the value of cash.   It has essentially created a nowhere to hide market environment.  As of January 21, 2022, the YTD returns of the major indices are:

 S&P 500 Index: -7.7%

Nasdaq:                -12.0%

Small Cap 600:   -8.5%

Agg (Bonds):      -1.7%

Bitcoin:                 -24.1% 

In this article I’m going to cover:

• What has caused the selloff?

• Do we expect the selloff to continue?

This Has Happened Before

How many times has the S&P 500 index dropped by more than 5% in a month over the past 10 years?

 Answer:  4 times

 February 2020: -18.92%

November 2018:  -5.56%

December 2015:  -6.42%

July 2011: -10.40%

Next question: How many times did the S&P 500 Index post a positive return 3 months following the month with the 5%+ loss?

 Answer: ALL OF THEM

 Mar 2020 – May 2020:     16.7%

Dec 2018 – Feb 2019:    9.5%

Jan 2016 – Mar 2016:          8.6%

Aug 2011 – Oct 2011:         4.0%

Don’t Make The Jump In / Jump Out Mistake

There is no doubt that the big, swift downturns in the markets bring fear, uncertainty, and stress for investors but all too often investors let their emotions get the better of them and the lose sight of the biggest economic trends that are at work.  The most common phrase that I hear from investors during these steep declines is:

“Maybe we should just go to cash to stop the losses and then we can buy back into the stock market once the risks have passed.”

The issue becomes: when do you get back in?  Following these big temporary sells offs in the market, it is common that the lion share of the gains happened before things feel good again.  Investors get back in after the market has already rallied back, meaning they solidified their losses and they are now allocating money back into stocks when they have returned to higher levels.   

We accurately forecasted higher levels of volatility in the market in 2022 when we release our 2022 Market Outlook video.   It is also our expectation that with inflation rising and the Fed moving interest rates higher, the selloff that we have experienced in January, will not be the only steep selloff that we are faced with this year.  Before we get into the longer- term picture, let’s first look at what prompted the January selloff in the markets.

What Caused The Market Selloff in January?

There are a number of factors that we believe has caused this severe selloff in January:

 COVID Omicron cases have surged

• The Fed’s more hawkish tone

• Rising interest rates

• Tech sector selloff

• COVID investment plays unwinding

• Loss of enhanced child tax credit monthly payments

While that looks like a long list, at the risking sounding like a broken record, if you go back to the Market Outlook video that we released in December, all of these were expected.  It’s only when unexpected events occur that we then have to shift our strategy for the entire year.  Let’s look at each of these items one by one:

COVID Cases Have Peaked

One thing that caught the market by surprise over the past few months is how contagious the Omicron variant was and how many cases there would be. This caused the recovery story to stall as safety measures were put back into place to control the spread of the most recent variant.  The good news is it looks like the cases have peaked and are now on the decline. See the chart below:

It's a little tough to see in the chart but the blue line represents the number of confirmed COVID cases. If you look all the way on the righthand side, as of January 20th, they have dropped dramatically. The 7-day moving average has dropped by about 100,000 cases.   This trend supports our forecast that the economy will begin opening up again starting in February.  We expect the reopening trade story to be part of the market rally coming off of this tough January for the markets.

The Fed’s Hawkish Tone

It's the Fed’s job to keep inflation under control so the economy does not overheat.  Inflation has been running at rate of over 6% for the past several months and going into 2022, the Fed telegraphed making 3 rate hikes in 2022.  After the Fed’s January meeting, an even more hawkish tone was found in those meeting minutes, suggesting that more than 3 rate hikes could be on the table this year.  This caused interest rates to rise rapidly which hurt both stocks and bonds in January. 

 But let’s take a look at history. The last time the Fed started raising rates was in 2016.  Between 2016 and 2018, they hiked the Fed Funds Rate 8 times. During that two-year period, the S&P 500 was up 15.8%.  The lesson here is just because the Fed is beginning to raise rates does not necessarily mark the end of the bull market rally. 

Rising Interest Rates

Interest rates rose sharply in January which put downward pressure on both stocks and bonds.  Investor often have bonds in their portfolio to offer protection when the there are selloffs in the stock market but when interest rates are moving high and the stock market is selling off at the same time, both stocks and bonds tend to move lower together.  The yield on the 10 Year Treasury jumped from 1.51% on December 31, 2021 to 1.86% on January 18, 2022. That does not sound like a big increase but in terms of interest rates that is a huge move in 18 days. (In percentage terms, over 23%) 

 We do expect interest to continue to rise in 2022 but not at the concentrated monthly pace that we saw in January. 

Tech Stock Drop

Tech stock took a big hit in January. The Nasdaq is down 12% in the first three weeks of 2022.  In the 2022 Market Outlook we talked about tech stock coming under pressure this year in the face of rising interest rate and a lesson from the 1970’s about the “Nifty Fifty”.    These tech stocks tend to trade at higher valuations. Interest rates and valuation levels tend to have an inverse relationship meaning if a stock is trading at a higher valuation level (P/E), they tend to be more adversely affected compared to the rest of the market when interest rates move higher.

COVID Investment Plays Unwind              

In January, stocks that were considered “stay at home” COVID plays, like streaming, home exercise equipment, and electronic document providers experience large corrections.  Here are some of the names that fall into that space and their performance YTD as of January 21, 2022:

Netlfix:                 -33%

Peloton:               -23%

DocuSign:            -23%

Now that the United States has reached a level of vaccinations and positive COVID cases that would suggest that we are at or close to herd immunity, there seems to be a higher likelihood that future COVID variants may not cause extreme economic shutdowns that supported the higher valuation level of these “stay at home” investment strategies.

Loss of Child Tax Credit Payments

Since the Build Back Better bill did not pass in December 2021, the $300+ per month that many parents were receiving for the Enhanced Child Tax Credits stopped in January.  While those monthly payments to families were only meant to be temporary, it was highly anticipated that they were going to be extended into 2022 with the passing of the Build Back Better bill.   Not having that extra money every month could slow down consumer spending in the first quarter of 2022.

Do We Expect The Selloff To Continue?

No one has a crystal ball but I would be very surprised if we do not see a recovery rally in the markets over the next few months.  I think people underestimate the amount of money that has been injected into the U.S. economy over the past 18 months.  If you total up all of the COVID stimulus packages over the past 18 months, they total $6.9 Trillion dollars. Compare that to the TARP Stimulus package that saved the banks and housing market in the 2008/2009 recession which only totaled $700 Billion.  A lot of that stimulus money has yet to be spent due to supply change and labor constraints over the past year.

 It's our expectations that the supply chain, which is already showing improvement, will continue to heal as we move further into 2022, which will give rise to higher levels of consumer spending and in turn, higher corporate earnings.  

 Inflation will be the greatest risk to the economy in 2022, but if the recovery of the supply chain causes prices to stabilize and consumers have the cash and wages to pay these temporarily higher prices, the bull rally could continue in 2022.  But again, it will be choppy.  The market could experience numerous corrections similar to what we are experiencing in January that investors may have to hold through, especially as the Fed begins to announce interest rate hikes later this year.  We expect patience to be rewarded in 2022.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.

2022 Market Outlook

There are trends that are developing in the U.S. economy that we have not seen for decades.  As inflation continues to rise at a rapid pace, we have to look back to the 1970’s as a reference point to determine how inflation could impact stocks, bonds, gold, and cash going into 2022.  The most common questions that we have received from clients over the past few weeks are:

Will the stock market rally continue into 2022?

• Will higher inflation derail the economy?

• How will the market react to the Fed increasing interest rates in 2022?

• A lesson from “The Nifty Fifty”

• How will the labor shortage and supply chain issues impact the markets in 2022?

I plan to address all of these questions and more as we present our market outlook for 2022.

 The Economy Will Continue to Strengthen

 It’s our expectation that we will see the U.S. economy gain strength in the first half of 2022.  Our economy is based primary on consumer spending and the consumer is charged with cash and ready to spend. The cash has come from record levels of government stimulus in 2020 and 2021, as well as rising wages across many sectors in the U.S. economy.  Debt levels are also at historic lows as well.  Due to the supply chain constraints, people could not spend the money, therefore they paid down their debt.  Per the chart below, debt payments as a percent of U.S. households’ disposable income is at the lowest level in over 40 years. 

Talk to any pool company and they will provide you with a clear picture of the pent- up demand.  Some pool installers are fully booked through 2022 and are taking deposits for pools for 2023. 

 Back Orders At Record Levels

 Many of the companies that we have spoken with across various industries have back orders at record levels. With back orders, the customer is already committed to buying a product from a company whether it’s a car, roof, gym equipment, etc., but they have yet to take delivery of that product.   When the product is delivered, they normally submit full payment, and the company realizes the revenue.  From an outlook standpoint, when companies have large back orders, it takes some of the risk off the table because it is not an “if the sales are going to be there to generate revenue” but rather “how quickly can the company deliver the product to their customers”.  

 Supply Chain Constraints

 The answer to the question “how quickly can they deliver?” relies heavily on how fast the global supply chain can get back online going into 2022.  People have been slower to return to the workforce than originally expected, which means less people at the ports to unload container ships, less truck drivers to transport the goods from the ports to the stores, and less employees in stores to stock shelves.  However, we see a number of new trends that should ease these constraints in 2022:

 Individuals needing to return to the workforce after depleting stimulus cash reserves

• Employer offering higher wages and sign on bonuses to attract employees

• A higher level of vaccination rates in children, easing childcare constraints, and allowing more parents to return to the workforce

 I think the economy has largely underestimated the impact of the childcare constraints on the ability for parents to return to the workforce.  If your child has a cough, even though a test may reveal that they don't have COVID, they may not be able to return to school for a few days, requiring a parent to take time off from work. 

 Relief At The Ports

 The two main ports in the U.S are the “twin ports” in Los Angeles and Long Beach; 40% of sea freight enters the U.S. through those two ports. Both have been working around the clock to unload ships and they are making significant progress.  Mario Cordero, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, stated that in mid- November there were 111 ships off the coast of California waiting to be unloaded and within two weeks that number was reduced to 61 ships.  However, it takes time for the goods to get off the ship, loaded onto a truck, and delivered to stores and businesses, but the trend is going in the right direction.

 Record Levels of Cash Injection

 Over the past 18 months, the U.S. Government has injected more cash into our economy than any other time in history.  To put this in perspective, let's compare the dollar amount of the bailout packages during the Great Recession of 2008 / 2009, to the level of cash injection over the past 18 months. In the illustration below on the left side you will see the TARP Program which was the government bailout for the banks and the housing market in 2008 / 2009. On the right, you will see all of the stimulus program that the government rolled out in 2020 / 2021 to battle COVID.

The total cost of TARP was $700 Billion.

 Over the past 18 months the government has injected almost $7 Trillion…………TRILLION……into the U.S. economy. That is 10 times the TARP program that was used to rescue the US economy in 2008/2009 when we almost lost the entire U.S. banking system.   

 To go one more step, below is a chart of the year over year change in the M2 money supply. This allows us to see how much cash is circulating within the U.S. economy compared to the prior year going all the way back to 1980.

Look at that mountain on the righthand side of the chart.  We have had recession in the past which has required the government to inject liquidity, which are illustrated by the grey areas in the chart, but nothing to the magnitude of what we have seen over the past 18 months.  Just a side note, this chart does not include the recent $1.2 Trillion dollar infrastructure bill that was already passed or the $1.75 Trillion Build Back Better bill that is deck.

 A lot of this cash that has been injected into the economy has not been spent yet because due to the supply chain constraints, consumers and business have not been able to spend it.  As the supply chain gets back online in 2022 and 2023, consumers and businesses will be able to put this cash to work which should be a boost to the U.S. economy.

 Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

 The great risk to the economy as we enter 2022 is undoubtedly rising inflation.  We have all seen prices rise rapidly for just about everything we buy: groceries, gas, travel, etc. The supply chain issues have made this problem worse because the less goods there are, the more expensive they become.  This leads us to the main question which is:

 “Will inflation subside once the supply chain gets back online or are these higher levels of inflation that we are seeing now just the beginning?”

 This is the question that everyone wants the answer to but it’s too early to tell.  The only thing that's going to provide us with the answer is time, so we are going to be watching these trends unfold week by week, month by month, as the data comes in during 2022.  In my opinion, there is an equal chance of both scenarios playing out.  Scenario one, the supply chain improves throughout 2022, increasing the supply of goods and services, which in turn stabilizes prices, and the risk of hyperinflation begins to fade.  Scenario two, either the supply chain does not heal fast enough, or wage growth continues to escalate, causing inflation rates to continue to rise, forcing the Fed’s hand to raise rates more quickly. 

 You have to remember that inflation only begins to do damage when prices rise to levels that consumers and businesses can no longer afford.  Given the historic levels of cash that have been injected into the economy, it’s our expectation that even with prices rising over the next 6 months, that may not curb the consumers ability or desire to purchase those same goods and services at higher prices.

 The Fed

 The Fed has two main objectives: 

1. Keep the economy at full employment

2. Keep inflation within its target range of 2% - 3%

 As you can see in the chart below, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) which is the Fed’s main measuring stick for inflation has risen well above the Fed’s 3% comfort zone and continues to rise.

 In November, it was reported that the year over year change in CPI (inflation) was 6.9%.  That’s a big number.  In response to these heightened levels of inflation, the Fed has increased its timeline for decreasing the amount of bonds that it is purchasing as well as escalating the timeline for their first interest rate hike.  With these changes, the Fed is intentionally tapping the brakes, so the economy does not overheat and give rise to hyperinflation like we saw in the 1970’s.  But it's important to understand that every time the Fed raises interest rates, it is working against economic growth because it makes lending more expensive.  Less lending normally means less spending.

 This change in the Fed stance is not necessarily an end all for the stock market rally.  Investors have to remember the Fed is raising rates because the economy is strong which has caused prices to rise.  Historically, as long as the Fed is able to raise rates at a measured pace, the economy and the market have time to digest those small increases, and the growth trend can continue.  It is when the Fed has to raise rates in large increments in a relatively short period of time, it creates more of an abrupt end to an economic expansion.   Think of it this way, if the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage go from 3.25% to 3.50% it’s not going to necessary derail the housing market. But if that 30-year mortgage rate goes from 3.25% to 5% in short period of time, that could cause a huge drop in housing prices because people will no longer be able to afford the mortgage payments to purchase a house at these elevate prices.   

 The Nifty Fifty

 Looking at that inflation chart that I showed you earlier, it’s been 30 years since the Core CPI index has been over 3%.  People that just started investing within the last 30 years have not seen the impact of inflation on stock, bonds, cash, and other asset classes. The last time the U.S. economy experienced higher inflation for a prolonged period of time was the 1970’s.  There are a lot of important investment lessons that we learned in the 1970’s but one of them that bears mentioning is the lesson of the “Nifty Fifty”. 

 The Nifty Fifty was the name given to a group of stocks in the 1970’s that were the darlings of the stock market.  Companies like McDonalds, Polaroid, Disney, IBM, Johnson & Johnson were names within the Nifty Fifty.  This group of stocks are similar to the FANGs that we have today which include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. 

 Why the comparison?  Coming out of the 1960’s there was prolonged bull market rally, similar to the one we have today, these Nifty Fifty stocks were the growth engines of the market, and as such they traded at very high valuations (P/E ratios) compared to their peers in the stock market. Many of the Nifty Fifty stocks had P/E ratios above 50 times forward earnings.  To put that in perspective, right now the S&P 500 Index has a P/E of about 21x forward earnings. When higher inflation shows up, it traditionally has a larger negative impact on stocks that are trading at higher multiples compared to stock that have lower P/E ratios.  This is because higher interest rates erode the present value of those future earnings that are baked into the price of those stocks.   When higher inflation showed up in the 1970’s, many of stocks in the Nifty Fifty dropped by over 60%.  Investors need to remember, when the economy is good and inflation is low, the market tends to care less about valuations.  When inflation increase and/or the economy slows down, all of a sudden valuations will begin to matter again to investors.

 I’m making this point as a word of caution; the Nifty Fifty and the FANG have a lot of similarities.  Even though, at this point, I do not expect a hyper inflationary environment like the 70’s, a rise in inflation may have a similar impact on stocks trading at a higher valuation. Netflix current trades a PE of 55, Amazon (P/E 66), Microsoft (P/E 38).   The market looked at the Nifty Fifty similar to how I hear investors talk about the FANG stocks now, “how can they ever go down?”  Also from a psychological standpoint, investors often find it difficult to sell holdings that have made them a lot of money, and these FANG stocks have increase in value a lot over the past 10 years. There is also the tax hit that investors incur in taxable accounts when unrealize gains turn into realized gains.

 To be clear, this is not a recommendation for investors to go sell of their FANG stocks, it’s about understanding the trends that have played out in history, how those trends may compare to where we are now when assessing risk, opportunity, and the investment decisions that we may face in 2022.  

 2022 Outlook Summary

 Brining all of these variables together, we expect the first half the year to bring with it strong economic growth which should be a favorable environment for risk assets. But…….we don’t anticipate that it will be a smooth ride in 2022 for equity investors. As the Fed implements its anticipated interest rate hikes, there could be a number of selloffs throughout the year that will test the patience of investors. If inflation does not get out of control, those selloffs could be an opportunity for investors to put cash to work, as the market shakes off the scary headline risks and the growth trend continues. We expect the labor shortage and supply chain issues to improve in 2022, which should help to ease some of the inflation fears as prices begin to stabilize in 2022 and potentially drop going into 2023. 

 The second half of the year will depend largely on the trend of inflation.  If inflation runs hotter than expected, it could begin to have an impact on consumer spending as prices rise above what consumers are willing to pay, and it could force the Fed to increase the magnitude or frequency of rate hikes in 2022.  Either of those two items could potentially erase or decrease the gains the U.S. stock market may have achieved in the first half of the year.

 With higher levels of volatility almost a given for 2022, investor may have to resist the urge to sell out of their stock positions and retreat to bonds or cash knowing that an inflationary environment is an enemy of both high-quality bonds and cash.  Overall, investors will have to pay closer attention the economic and inflation data throughout the year to determine if pivots should be made in their investment strategy, especially as we enter the second half of the year.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.

Why Are Long-Term Care Insurance Premiums Skyrocketing?

Many individuals that have long-term care insurance policies are beginning to receive letters in the mail notifying them that that their insurance premiums are going up  by 50%, 70%, or more in some cases.  This is after many of the same policyholders have experienced similar size premium increases just a few years ago.  In this article I’m going to explain:

• Why this is happening

• Are these premium increases going to continue?

• Options for managing the cost of these policies

• If you cancel the policy, alternative solutions for managing the financial risk of a LTC event

Premium Increases & Insolvency 

 Unfortunately, it’s not just the current premium increases that are presenting LTC policyholders with these difficult decisions. Within the letters, some of these insurance carriers are threatening that if they’re not able to raise premiums by 250% within the next 6 years, that the insurance company may not have enough assets to pay the promised benefit. What good is an insurance policy if there’s no insurance company to pay the benefit?  I won’t mention any of the insurance companies by name but here is some of the word for word statements in those letters:

“This represents a 69% rate increase in the premiums for your policy.” 

“A.M. Best has downgraded its rating of (NAME OF INSURANCE COMPANY) financial strength to C++ in September 2019, indicating A.M. Best’s view that (NAME OF INSURANE COMPANY) has marginal ability to meet its ongoing insurance obligations.”

“Please be aware that as of 06/06/21 over the next 3-6 years we are planning to seek additional rate increases of up to 250% for lifetime benefits”

This creates a very difficult decision for the policyholder to either: 

1. Keep the policy and pay the higher premiums

2. Cancel the policy

3. Make adjustments to the current policy to make it more affordable in the short-term

These Policies Are Not Cheap

 In most cases, these long-term care insurance premiums were not cheap to begin with. Prior to these premium increases, it was not uncommon for a robust policy in New York to cost between $2,500-$4,000 per year, per person.   LTC policies tend to carry a higher cost because they have a higher probability of paying out when compared to other types of insurance policies. For example, with life insurance, they expect you to pay your premiums, you live a long happy life, and the insurance policy never pays out. Compare this to the risk of a long-term event, where in 2021 HealthView Services produced a study that stated:

“An Average healthy 65-year-old couple living to their projected actuarial longevity has a 75% chance that one partner will require a significant level of long term care. There is a 25% probability that both partners will need long-term care” (source: Think Advisor)

Couple that with the fact that long-term care expenses are very high and insurance companies have to charge more in premiums to balance the dollars in versus dollars out.  

With these premium increases now in play, some retired couples are faced with a situation where they previously may have been paying $5,000 per year for both policies and they find out their premiums are going up by 70%, increasing that annual cost to $8,500 per year.

Affordability Issue

 So what happens when a retired couple, on a fixed amount of income, gets one of these letters, and realizes they can’t afford the premium increase. They essentially have two options:

1. Cancel the policy

2. Make amendments to the policy (if the insurance company allows)

Let’s start off by looking at the amendment option.  Many insurance companies, in exchange for a lower premium increase, may allow you to reduce the benefits offered by the policy to make it more affordable.  You may have options like

• Extending the elimination period 

• Reducing inflation riders

• Reducing the daily benefit

• Reducing the maximum lifetime benefit

• Reducing home care options

These are just some of the adjustments that could be made, but remember, you are taking what you have now, and watering it down to make it more affordable. Caution, at some point you have to ask yourself:

“If I reduce the benefits of this policy, will it provide me enough coverage to meet my financial needs should I have a long-term event?”

If the answer is “No”, then you may have to look more closely at the option of canceling the policy.  But what happens if you cancel the policy and you are now exposed to the financial risk of a long-term care event?  Answer, you will have to identify another financial strategy to manage that risk. Two of the most common that we have implemented for clients are

• Self-insuring

• Setting up Medicaid trusts

Self-Insuring Alternative

 The way this solution works is you are essentially setting money aside for yourself, acting as your own insurance company, should a long-term care event arise later in life, you will have money set aside to pay those expenses. If you were previously paying an insurance company $4,000 per year for your LTC policy, then cancel the policy, you would set up a separate investment account where you continue to deposit the amount of the premium payments that you were previously making each year so there will be a pool of assets to draw from should a long-term event arise.

But, you have to run projections to determine how much money is estimated to be in those accounts at future ages to make sure it is sufficient to cover enough of those costs that it won’t put you in a tough financial situation later on. There is an upside benefit to this strategy that if you never have a long-term care event, there are assets sitting there that your beneficiaries could inherit.  If instead that money was going toward long-term care insurance premiums and there’s not a long-term care event, all that money has essentially been wasted.  However, this strategy does take more planning because your self-insurance strategy may be not cover the same dollar for dollar amount that your LTC policy would have covered if a long-term care event arises.

Medicaid trust

 Understanding how Medicaid trusts works is a whole article in itself and we have a video dedicated just to this topic. But the general idea behind the strategy is this, if you have a long-term event and you do not have a LTC insurance policy, you essentially have to spend through all of your countable assets to pay for your care.  Note, the annual costs of assisted living or a nursing home is often $100,000+ per year. For those that do not have assets, Medicaid will often pay for the cost of assisted-living or nursing home care. By setting up a trust and placing your assets in a trust ahead of time, if those assets are owned by the trust for a specific number of years, if there is a long-term care event, you do not have to spend those assets down, and Medicaid picks up the tab for your care. Like I said, there’s a lot more detail regarding the strategy and if you’d like to know more watch this video:

Medicaid Trust Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBVQtrGiUso

Future Premium Increases

 You also have to include in your analysis the risk of future premium increases which seem likely. These letters from the insurance companies themselves state that they may have to increase premiums by a lot more just to stay in business. So it’s not just evaluating the current premium increase in these situations but also considering what decisions you could face within the next 5 – 10 years if the premiums double again. This variable can definitely influence the decisions that you are making now.

Why Are These Premium Increases Happening?

 This is a 20 year problem in the making. For decades insurance companies have miscalculated how long people were going to live and the rising cost of long-term care. Since they weren’t charging enough at the onset of these policies, they have not collected enough in insurance premiums to cover the insurance claims that are now being filed by policyholders. Thus, the policyholders that currently have policies are now being required to pay more to make up for those underwriting mistakes. 

The second issue is that there is less competition in the long term care insurance market. Insurance companies in general do not want to issue policies in a sector of the market where the probability of a payout is high and the dollar amount of the payout is also high; they want to operate in sectors of the market where the probability of a payout is low so they get to just keep your premium payments. Many insurance companies have completely exited the Long Term Care Insurance market.  For example, in New York state, there are only two insurance companies remaining that are issuing traditional long-term care policies. Less competition, higher prices.

The third issue is due to the dramatic rise in the annual premium amounts, they have become less affordable for new policyholders. Many retirees can’t afford to pay $4,000+  per year for each spouse’s LTC policy so the issuance of new policies is dropping; that again, saddles the current policy holders with the premium increases.  

A Difficult Decision

 For all of these reasons, if you are currently a holder of a LTC insurance policy, instead of just blindly paying the higher premiums, it really makes sense to evaluate your options with the anticipation that the premiums may continue to increase in the future.   For those that decide to amend their policy to reduce the cost, you really have to evaluate if the policy covers enough going forward to make it worth continuing on with the policy.  I strongly recommend seeking professional help with this decision. Professionals in the industry can help you evaluate your options because these decisions can be irreversible and the right solution will vary individual by individual.  

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.

How Much Does Your Car Insurance Increase When You Add A Teenager To Your Policy?

You have probably heard the phrase “kids are expensive“. That phrase takes on a whole new meaning when you find out how much your car insurance is going to increase when you add your teenage child to your policy.  In this article I’m going to share with you:

1. How much you can expect your car insurance premiums to increase when a teenager is added

2. What does the insurance company look at when determining the premium?

3. Are car insurance premiums higher for males or females?

4. Ways to reduce the cost

5. How much does the cost go up if they get into a car accident?

6. When your child turns 18, should you move them to their own policy?

7. Coverage mistakes

Ruger Personal Note:  I have an 18 year old daughter that we added to our auto policy about a year ago. The two main things that I have learned so far are:

• The cost increase was higher than I expected

• New drivers hit stuff with their cars

By the time my oldest daughter was 18, she had already hit a deer, a post, and my car which was parked in our driveway. Yea, that last one was a rough day because I had to fix both cars.  I’m writing this article because there are strategies that you can implement to reduce the cost of the insurance for your children and it’s also important to understand the liability that you take on by having a new driver on your policy.

How Much Does Your Car Insurance Increase?

 The million dollar question: How much is your car insurance premium going to increase once you add your child to the policy?

Like so many other things in life, there is not a 100% straight answer because it depends on a number of variables such as:

• Credit Score of the parents

• Driving record of the parents

• Will they have their own car or sharing a car with their parents?

• What type of car will they be driving?

• What state do you live in?

• Coverage limits of the policy

• The Insurance company issuing the policy

But let me give you a base case scenario to work with before we get into discussing all of the variables that factor into the premium calculation.   In this example we have:

• A 16 year old driver that is being added to their parent’s auto policy

• Parents have a good credit score

• Parents both have good driving records

• Your child will have their own 2016 Honda Civic to drive

The annual INCREASE in your auto insurance premium may be between $1,000 - $1,500.  This is more of a best case scenario.  If the parents have poor credit scores or poor driving records, the premium could increase by $3,000+ per year in some cases.  To get a better idea of where you might fall within this wide spectrum, let’s look at the variables that influence the cost of auto insurance when a new driver is added.

Credit Score of the Parent

 I was surprised to learn that the credit score of the parents is one of the largest factors that many insurance companies use to determine the amount of the premium increase.   They have apparently identified a trend that parents that are financially responsible tend to have children that are less likely to get in car accidents.  Even though this will not be true for all families, insurance companies have accumulated a lot of data over a long period to reach these conclusions.   

This brings us to our first strategy for reducing the cost of the car insurance for your children.  If the parents are able to improve their credit score before adding the child to their auto policy, it could reduce the premium increase.  There are many ways to do accomplish this but it is beyond the scope of this article. However, here is a good article from Nerd Wallet that can help.

The Parents Driving Record

 This one is pretty self-explanatory. If the parents have a lot of marks on their driving records such as multiple accidents or speeding tickets, it could make the premium increase higher when you go to add your child to the policy.  Again, the insurance company must have made a connection between the driving behavior of the parents and the driving behavior of their children. 

 Are car insurance premiums higher for males or females?

 The answer to this one is “it depends on what insurance company you go with”.  Some insurance companies do charge more depending on whether you are adding a son or a daughter to your policy, others do not. How do you know which insurance companies are gender bias?  You can either ask the insurance company directly if it influences the premium or you engage the services of an independent insurance agency that knows the underwriting criteria of each insurance company. 

Will The New Driver Have Their Own Car?

Another big factor in the insurance cost will be what vehicle your teenager will be driving.  If you are adding a new driver to your policy and adding an additional car to your policy as well, the premium increase will obviously be larger than if you are just adding a new driver who will be driving the current cars listed on your policy.  In the Honda Civic example above, adding the car and the new driver increased the annual premium by $1,000 - $1,500.  If you are adding the new driver to your current policy but they will be co-driving a car with you, the premium may only increase a few hundred dollars but it depends on the value of the cars that you drive.

A Driver Assigned To Each Car

 I asked about a work around here.  Let’s say there are 2 parents and 1 child.  If you add a third car to your policy for the new driver, most insurance carriers do not allow you to say that two of the cars belong to Parent A, the third car to Parent B, and the child shares each of the three cars.  If there are 3 cars and 3 drivers covered by the policy, the insurance company typically wants to assign a “primary driver” to each vehicle listed on the policy. 

NOTE:  Be careful when you add new drivers to your policy.   Make sure you provide them with clear direction as to who the primary driver is for each vehicle. If you buy your child a car and you drive a more expensive car than your child, you don’t want the insurance company assigning your child as the primary driver to your car which could result in a larger increase in the annual premium.  It’s worth taking the time to review your auto policy after any changes have been made.

Not telling the insurance company about the new driver

 Unfortunately, some families may decide not to tell their insurance company about the new driver in the family. Not a good idea. This opens you up to a whole host of liability issues. While car insurance does “follow the car”, meaning whoever is driving your car will most likely be covered in some fashion by your auto policy, however, if there is a claim and the insurance company finds out that you intentionally did not add the new driver to your policy, they may pay the claim, but they may also drop your coverage after that. 

Ways To Reduce The Cost

 There are a number of ways that you may be able to reduce the cost of the insurance for your teenager:

• Defensive Driving Course

• Good Student Discount

• Student Away from Home Discount

• Removing collision coverage on an older car

Notice I did not mention anything about Drivers Education.  I was surprised to find out that in New York, more insurance carriers no longer offer a discount for the child completing a Drivers Ed course.  Some carriers offer the “Good Student Discount” which provides a small discount for students that maintain over a certain GPA.  The “Student Away From Home” discount is for children that go away to college, they are not allowed to bring their cars, but they will be driving when they come home for breaks. With this discount, the insurance company is recognizing that they will be driving less in that situation.  Having your child complete a defensive driving course can decrease the premium and many of these courses are now available online.  

Removing collision coverage on an older car can also reduce the cost of the coverage.  If your child is driving a car that is worth $5,000 and you feel like you are in a position financially to replace that car if you needed to, then you may elect to waive collision coverage on the car which can lower the premium.  For vehicles of higher value, this is a larger risk, and if there is a car loan against the car, most lenders will require you to maintain collision coverage until the loan is paid off.

Moving Your Child To Their Own Car Insurance Policy

One of the questions I asked the insurance agent was:

“When does it make sense for the child to obtain their own car insurance policy as opposed to being covered under their parent’s policy?”

The general rule of thumb is if your children are still living at home, in many cases it will make sense, from a cost standpoint, to keep them covered under your policy. If you want your child to be responsible for the car insurance payment, you can just charge them for their share of the coverage.  

One of the largest discounts that most insurance carriers offer is a “multi vehicle discount” while could reduce the annual cost of the car insurance by around 25% for some carriers. So,  let’s say that the Honda Civic for your child costs $1,000 per year under your policy, if your child goes and obtains their own insurance policy, they will lose the multi car discount that you are receiving under your policy, and it could increase their cost by 25%. 

Also, remember that I mentioned before that the parents credit score can be a big factor in determining the amount of the auto premium for their child’s coverage.  Most young adults have little to no credit history so if they go to obtain their own insurance policy, it could increase the cost.  Previously, they may have been benefiting from their parent’s strong credit scores and driving history which leads me to my next planning tip.  At some point, your child will leave home, and they will obtain their own car insurance policy.  As a parent, you can help them but encourage them to begin establishing some credit history early on so when they go to obtain their first car insurance policy, they have a good credit score, and it could reduce that annual expense.

How Much Does The Cost Increase If They Get Into A Car Accident?

 I’ll go back to my original point that “new drivers hit stuff”.  There is a high likelihood that the new driver in your family is going to hit a mailbox, a garbage can backing out of the driveway, another car, or one of their friends could hit their car in a high school parking lot.   When these life events happen, the question becomes, how much are your car insurance premiums going to increase?  Does $1,000 go to $3,000 per year?  The answer unfortunately is it depends on what happened.  The size of the insurance claim can influence the amount of the premium increase. 

With any damage to a vehicle, you have three options:

1. Don’t fix it

2. Pay to fix it out of pocket

3. Submit an insurance claim and fix it

The first question to answer in this analysis is “what is your deductible?”  It’s common for car insurance policies to have deductibles which means when you submit a claim, you must pay a certain amount out of pocket before the insurance company picks up the rest; a $500 deductible is common. So, if your child hits something, does some minor damage, and the total cost to fix it is $600, if your deductible is already $500, submitting an insurance claim will only pay $100, and you run the risk of your annual insurance premiums increasing.  It may be better to just pay the $600 out of pocket instead of submitting the insurance claim. 

If there is more significant damage like $3,000+, it may make sense to just submit the claim, pay the deductible, and let the insurance company pay for the rest.  My friend that is in the insurance industry will remind people, “This is why you have insurance….use it.”  

It’s a more difficult decision when the dollar amount of the fix is somewhere in the middle of these examples. If the car has $1,000 of damage but you have a $500 deductible, what should you do?  This is where having an independent insurance broker can help. You can call your broker, explain the situation, and they may be able to provide you with an estimate of how much your insurance premium will increase each year if you submit the claim, then you can make an informed decision based on that information.

Know Your Coverage

 All car insurance policies are not the same!!  While, of course, everyone wants their car insurance premium as low as possible, do not make the mistake of just blindly running to the lowest cost option.  Lower cost can mean lower coverage.  The day that your child gets into a car accident is going to be a very bad day.  That day will get even worse if your child hits a $75,000 Tesla and you find out that your auto policy only covers $25,000 of property damage so you are on the hook for the other $50,000!!!  Make sure you are not being sold a watered-down car insurance policy that will open you up to gaps in coverage. You may have saved $400 per year on the insurance premium but when an accident happens, you could be out of pocket $10,000+.

Two more points to make about knowing your coverage:

1. No one ever gets up in the morning and says “I’m going to get into a car accident today”

2. New drivers hit stuff

Thank You to HMS Agency 

 I want to send out a special thank you to Steve Mather, a partner at HMS Agency, for helping me collect the information that I needed to write this article.  As a financial planner, I enjoy helping people to save money, but I know very little about the inner workings of car insurance which is why I rely on experts like Steve and his team.

This information is for educational purposes only. For information specific to your insurance needs, please contact a licensed insurance agent.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.

Should You Make Pre-tax or Roth 401(k) Contributions?

When you become eligible to participate in your employer’s 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan, you will have to decide what type of contributions that you want to make to the plan.  Most employer sponsored retirement plans now offer employees the option to make either Pre-tax or Roth contributions.   A number of factors come into play when deciding what source is the right one for you including:

• Age

• Income level

• Marital status

• Income need in retirement

• Withdrawal plan in retirement

• Abnormal income years

You have to consider all of these factors before making the decision to contribute either pre-tax or Roth to your retirement plan.

Pre-tax vs Roth Contributions

 First, let’s start off by identifying the differences between pre-tax and Roth contributions.  It’s pretty simple and straight forward.  With pre-tax contributions, the strategy is “don’t tax me on it now, tax me on it later”.  The contributions are deducted from your gross pay, they deduct FICA tax, but they do not withhold federal or state tax which in doing so, you are essentially lowering the amount of your income that is subject to federal and state income tax in that calendar year. The full amount is deposited into your 401K, the balance accumulates tax deferred, and then when you retire, and pull money out, that is when you pay tax on it.  The tax strategy here is taking income off the table when you are working and in a higher tax bracket, and then paying tax on that money after you are retired, your paychecks have stopped, and you are hopefully in a lower tax bracket.

With Roth contributions, the strategy is “pay tax on it now, don’t pay tax on it later”.  When your contributions are deducted from your pay, they withhold FICA, as well as Federal and State income tax, but when you withdraw the money in retirement, you don’t have to pay tax on any of it INCLUDING all of the earnings.

Age

 Your age and your time horizon to retirement are a big factor to consider when trying to decide between pre-tax or Roth contributions.  In general, the younger you are and the longer your time horizon to retirement, the more it tends to favor Roth contributions because you have more years to build the earning in the account which will eventually be withdrawn tax-free.  In contrast, if you’re within 10 years to retirement, you have a relatively short period of time before withdrawals will begin from the account, making pre-tax contributions may make the most sense.

When you end up in one of those mid time horizon ranges like 10 to 20 years to retirement, the other factors that we’re going to discuss have a greater weight in arriving at your decision to do pre-tax or Roth.

Income level

 Your level of income also has a big impact on whether pre-tax or Roth makes sense.  In general, the higher your level of income, the more it tends to favor pre-tax contributions. In contrast, lower to medium levels of income, can favor Roth contributions. Remember pre-tax is “don’t tax me on it now, tax me on it later”, and the strategy is you are assuming that you are in a higher tax bracket now during your earning years then you will be in retirement when you don’t have a paycheck. By contrast, a 22 year old, that has accepted their first job, will most likely be at the lowest level of income over their working career, and have the expectation that their earnings will grow overtime.  This situation would favor making Roth contributions because you are paying tax on the contributions while you are still in a low tax bracket and then later on when your income rises, you can switch over to pre-tax.  

Marital status

 Your marital status matters because if you’re married and you file a joint tax return, you have to consider not just your income but your spouse’s income. If you make $30,000 a year, that might lead you to think that Roth is a good option, but if your spouse makes $200,000 a year, your combined income on your joint tax return is $230,000 which puts you in a higher tax bracket.  Assuming you’re not going to need $230,000 per year to live off of in retirement, pre-tax contributions may be more appropriate because you want the tax deduction now.

A change in your marital status can also influence the type of contributions that you’re making to the plan. If you are a single filer making $50,000 a year, you may have been making Roth contributions but then you get married and your spouse makes $100,000 a year, since your income will now be combined for tax filing purposes, it may make sense for you to change your elections to pre-tax contributions.

These changes can also take place when one spouse retires and the other is still working. Prior to the one spouse retiring, both were earning income, and both were making pre-tax contributions. Once one of the spouses retires the income level drops, the spouse that is still working may want to switch to Roth contributions given their much lower tax rate.

Withdrawal plan in retirement

 You also have to look ahead to your retirement years and estimate what your income picture might look like.  If you anticipate that you will need the same level in retirement that you have now, even though you might have a shorter time horizon to retirement, it may favor making Roth contributions because your tax rate is not anticipated to drop in the retirement years. So why not pay tax on the contributions now and then receive the earnings on the account tax-free, as opposed to making pre-tax contributions and having to pay tax on all of it.  The benefit associated with pre-tax contributions assumes that you’re in a higher tax rate now and when you withdraw the money you will be in a lower tax bracket.

Some individuals accumulate balances in their 401(k) accounts but they also have pensions.  As they get closer to retirement, they realize between their pension and Social Security, they will not need to make withdrawals from their 401(k) account to supplement their income.  In many of those cases, we can assume a much longer time horizon for those accounts which may begin to favor Roth contributions. Also, if those accounts are going to continue to accumulate and eventually be inherited by their children, from a tax standpoint, it’s more beneficial for children to inherit a Roth account versus a pre-tax retirement account because they have to pay tax on all of the money in a pre-tax retirement account as some point.

Abnormal income years

 It’s not uncommon during your working years to have some abnormal income years where your income ends up being either significantly higher or significantly lower than it normally is.  In these abnormal years it often makes sense to change your pre-tax or Roth approach. If you are a business owner, you typically make $300,000 per year, but the business has a bad year, and you’re only going to make $50,000 this year, instead of making your usual pre-tax contributions, it may make sense to contribute Roth that year.  If you are a W-2 employee, and the company that you work for is having a really good year, and you expect to receive a big bonus at the end of the year, if you’re contributing Roth it may make sense to switch to pre-tax anticipating that your income will be much higher for the tax year.

Another exception can happen in the year that you retire.  Some companies will issue bonuses or paid out built up sick time or vacation time which can count as taxable income. In those years it may make sense to make larger pre-tax contributions because the income in that final year may be much higher than normal.

 

Frequently Asked Questions About Roth Contributions

 When we are educating 401K plan participants on this topic, there are a few frequently asked questions that we receive:

Do all retirement plans allow Roth contributions?

ANSWER:  No, Roth contributions are a voluntary contribution source that a company has to elect to offer to its employees.  We are seeing a lot more plans that offer this benefit but not all plans do.

Can you contribute both Pre-Tax and Roth at the same time to the plan?

ANSWER:  Yes, if your plan allows Roth contributions you are normally able to contribute both pre-tax and Roth to the plan simultaneously.  However, the annual deferral limits are aggregated for purposes of all employee elective deferrals. For example, in 2021, the maximum employee deferral limits are as follows:

• Under the age of 50:  $19,500

• Age 50+: $26,000

You can contribute all pre-tax, all Roth, or any combination of the two but those amounts are aggregated together for purposes of assessing the annual dollar limits.

Do you have to set up a separate account for your Roth contributions to the 401K?

ANSWER: No. The Roth contributions that you make out of your paycheck to the plan are just tracked as a separate source within the 401K plan. They have to do this because when it comes to withdrawing the money, they have to know how much of your account balance is pre-tax and what amount is Roth.  Typically, on your statements, you will see your total balance, and then it breaks it down by money type within your account.

What happens when I retire and I have Roth money in my 401K account?

ANSWER:  For those that contribute Roth to their accounts, it's common for them to have both pre-tax and Roth money in their account when they retire.  The pre-tax money could be from employee deferrals that you made or from the employer contributions.  When you retire, you can set up both a rollover IRA and a Roth IRA to receive the rollover balance from each source.

SPECIAL NOTE:  The Roth source has a special 5 year holding rule.  To be able to withdraw the earnings from the Roth source tax free, you have to be over the age of 59 ½ AND the Roth source has to have been in existence for at least 5 years.  Here is the problem, that five-year holding clock does not transfer over from a Roth 401(k) to a Roth IRA.  If you did not have a Roth IRA a prior to the rollover, you would have to re satisfy the five-year holding period within the Roth IRA before making withdraws.  We normally advise clients in this situation that they should set up a Roth IRA with $1 five years prior to retirement to start that five-year clock within the Roth IRA so by the time they rollover the Roth 401(k) balance they are free and clear of the 5 year holding period requirement. (Assuming their income allows them to make a Roth IRA contribution during that $1 year)

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.

Cash Balance Plans: $100K to $300K in Pre-tax Contributions

A Cash Balance Plan for small business owners can be one the best ways to shelter large amounts of income from taxation each year.  Most small business owners are familiar with 401(K) plans, SEP IRA’s, Solo(k) Plans, and Simple IRA’s, but these “DB/DC Combo” plans bring the tax savings for business owners to a whole new level.  DB/DC combo plans can allow business owners to contribute $100,000 to $300,000 pre-tax EACH YEAR which can save them tens of thousands of dollars in taxes.   In this article I’m going to walk you through:

• How cash balance plans and DB/DC combo plans work

• Which companies are the best fit for these plans

• How the contribution amount is calculated each year

• Why an actuary is involved

• How long should these plans be in place for?

• The cost of maintaining these plans

• How they differ from 401(k) plans, SEP IRA, Solo(k), and Simple IRA plans

The Right Type of Company

When we put one of these DB/DC combo plans in place for a client, most of the time, the company has the following characteristics:

• Less than 20 full time employees

• The business is producing consistent cash flow

• Business owners are making $300K or more per year

• Business owner is looking for a way to dramatically reduce their tax liability

• Company already sponsors either a 401(k), Solo(k), Simple IRA, or SEP IRA

What Is A Cash Balance Plan?

 This special plan design involves running a 401(k) plan and Cash Balance Plan side by side.  401(K) plans, SEP IRAs, and Simple IRAs are considered a “defined contribution plans”.   As the name suggests, a defined contribution plan defines the maximum hard dollar amount that you can contribute to the plan each year.  The calculation is based on the current, here and now benefit.  For 2021, the maximum annual contribution limits for a 401(k) plan is either $58,000 or $64,500 depending on your age.

A Cash Balance Plan is considered a “defined benefit plan”; think a pension plan.  Define benefit plans define the benefit that will be available to you at some future date and the contribution that is required today is a calculation based on the dollar amount needed to meet that future benefit.  They have caps but the caps are much higher than defined contribution plans and they vary based on the age and compensation of the business owner.  Also, even though they are pension plans, they typically payout the benefit as a lump sum pre-tax amount that can be rolled over to either an IRA or other type of qualified plan.

As mentioned earlier, these Combo plans can provide annual pre-tax contribution in excess of $300,000 per year for some business owners.  Now that is the maximum but you do not have to design your plan to be based on the maximum contribution.  Some small business owners would prefer to just contribute $100,000 - $150,000 pre-tax per year if that was available, and these combo plans can be designed to meet those contribution levels.

Employee Demographic

 Employee demographic play a huge role as to whether or not these plans work for a given company.  Similar to 401(K) plans, cash balance plans are subject to nondiscrimination testing year which requires the company to make an employer contribution to eligible employees based on amounts that are contributed to the owner’s accounts.   But it’s not as big of a jump in contribution level to the employees that many business owners expect.  It's not uncommon a company to already be sponsoring a company retirement plan which is providing the employees with an employer contribution equal to 3% to 5% of the employees annual compensation.   Many of these DB/DC combo plans only require a 7.5% total contribution to pass testing. Thus, making an additional 2.5% of compensation contributions to the employees can open up $100,000 - $250,000 in additional pre-tax contributions for the business owner.  In many cases, the tax savings for the business owner more than pays for the additional contribution to the employee so everyone wins.  The employee get more and the business owner gets a boat load of tax savings.

The age and annual compensation of the owner versus the employees also has a large impact.  In general, this plan design works the best for businesses where the average age of the employees is much lower than the age of the business owner, and the business owner’s compensation is much higher than that of the average employee.  These plans are very common for dentists, doctors, lawyers, consultants, and any other small business that fits this owner vs employee demographic. 

If you have no employees or it’s an owner only entity, even better. You just graduated to the higher contribution level without additional contributions to employees.

Reminder: You only have to count full time employees. ERISA defines full time employees as being employed for at least 1 year and working over 1,000 hours during that one year period. If you have employees working less than 1,000 hours a year, they may never become eligible for the plan. 

The 3 Year Rule

 When you adopt a Cash Balance Plan, you typically have to keep the plan in place for at least 3 years.  The IRS does not want you to have one great year, contribute $300,000 pre-tax, and then terminate the plan the next year.  Unlike 401(k) plans, cash balance plans have minimum funding requirements each year which is why businesses have to have more predictable revenue streams for this plan design to makes sense.

However, you can build in fail safe into the plan design to help protect against bad years in the business.  Since no business owner knows what is going to happen over the next three years, we can build into the plan design a “lesser of” statement which calculates the contribution for the business owner based on the “lesser of the ERISA max comp limit for the year or the owners comp for that tax year.”  If the business owner makes $500,000, they would use the ERISA comp limit of $290,000 for 2021. If it’s a horrible year and the business owner only makes $50,000 that year, the required contribution would be based on that lower compensation level, reducing the required contribution for that year.

After 3 years, the company has the option to voluntarily terminate the cash balance plan, and the business owner can rollover his or her balance into the 401(k) plan or rollover IRA. 

Contributions Are Due Tax Filing Deadline Plus Extension

 The company is not required to fund these plans until tax filing deadline plus extension.   If the business is a 12/31 fiscal year end and you adopt the plan in November, you would not be required to fund the contribution until either September 15th or October 15th of the following year depend on how your business is incorporated. 

Assumed Rates of Return

 Unlike a 401(k) plan where each employee has their own account that they have control over, Cash Balance Plans are pooled investment account, because the company is responsible for producing the rate of return in the account that meets or beats the actuarial assumptions.  The annual rate of return target for the cash balance plan can sometimes be tied to a treasury bond yield, flat rate, or other metric used by the actuary within the ERISA guidelines.  If the plan assets underperform the assumed rate of return, it could increase the required contribution for that year. Vice versa, if the plan assets outperform the assumed rate, it can decrease the required contribution for the year.  The additional risk taken on by the company has to be considered when selecting the appropriate asset allocation for the cash balance account.

Annual Plan Fees

 Since cash balance plans are defined benefit plans, you will need an actuary to calculate the required minimum contribution each year.  Since most of these plans are DC/DB combo plans, the 401(K) plan and the Cash Balance Plan need to be tested together for purposes of passing year end testing.   A full 401(k) may carry $1,000 - $3,000 in annual administration cost each year depending on your platform, whereas running both a 401(K) and Cash Balance Plan may increase those administration costs to $4,000 - $7,000 depending again on the platform and the number of employees.

While these plans can carry a higher cost, you have to weigh it against the tax savings that the business owner is realizing by having the DC/DB combo plan in place. If they are able to contribute an additional $200,000 over just their 401(K), that could save them $80,000 in taxes.  Many business owners in the top tax bracket are willing to pay an additional $3,000 in admin fees to save $80,000 in taxes.

Run Projections

 As a business owner, you have to weigh the additional costs of sponsoring the plan against the amount of your tax savings. For the right company, these combo plans can be fantastic but it’s not a set it and forget it type plan design.  As the employee demographics within the company change over the years it can impact this cost benefit analysis. We have seen cases where hiring just one employee has thrown off the whole plan design a year later.  

If you would like to learn more about this plan design or would like us to run a projection for your company, feel free to reach out to us for a complementary consult.  

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

DISCLOSURE: This material is for informational purposes only. Neither American Portfolios nor its Representatives provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax, legal or accounting professional before making any decisions. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advisory services offered through Greenbush Financial Group, LLC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through American Portfolio Financial Services, Inc (APFS). Member FINRA/SIPC. Greenbush Financial Group, LLC is not affiliated with APFS. APFS is not affiliated with any other named business entity. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guarantees apply to certain insurance and annuity products (not securities, variable or investment advisory products) and are subject to product terms, exclusions and limitations and the insurer's claims-paying ability and financial strength. Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the annuity and its investment options. Please submit using the same generated coversheet for this submission number. Potential investors of 529 plans may get more favorable tax benefits from 529 plans sponsored by their own state. Consult your tax professional for how 529 tax treatments and account fees would apply to your particular situation. To determine which college saving option is right for you, please consult your tax and accounting advisors. Neither APFS nor its affiliates or financial professionals provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Please carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For this and other information about municipal fund securities, please obtain an offering statement and read it carefully before you invest. Investments in 529 college savings plans are neither FDIC insured nor guaranteed and may lose value.