Moving Expenses Are No Longer Deductible

If you were planning on moving this year to take a new position with a new company or even a new position within your current employer, the moving process just got a little more expensive. Not only is it expensive, but it can put you under an intense amount of stress as there will be lots of things that you need to have in place before packing up and moving. Even things like how you are going to transport your car over to your new home, can take up a lot of your time, and on top of that, you have to think about how much it's going to cost. Prior to the tax law changes that took effect January 1, 2018, companies would often offer new employees a "relocation package" or "moving expense reimbursements" to help subsidize the cost of making the move. From a tax standpoint, it was great benefit because those reimbursements were not taxable to the employee. Unfortunately that tax benefit has disappeared in 2018 as a result of tax reform.

Taxable To The Employee

Starting in 2018, moving expense reimbursements paid to employee will now represent taxable income. Due to the change in the tax treatment, employees may need to negotiate a higher expense reimbursement rate knowing that any amount paid to them from the company will represent taxable income.

For example, let’s say you plan to move from New York to California and you estimate that your moving expense will be around $5,000. In 2017, your new employer would have had to pay you $5,000 to fully reimburse you for the moving expense. In 2018, assuming you are in the 35% tax bracket, that same employer would need to provide you with $6,750 to fully reimburse you for your moving expenses because you are going to have to pay income tax on the reimbursement amount.

Increased Expense To The Employer

For companies that attract new talent from all over the United States, this will be an added expense for them in 2018. Many companies limit full moving expense reimbursement to executives. Coincidentally, employees at the executive level are usually that highest paid. Higher pay equals higher tax brackets. If you total up the company's moving expense reimbursements paid to key employees in 2017 and then add another 40% to that number to compensate your employees for the tax hit, it could be a good size number.

Eliminated From Miscellaneous Deductions

As an employee, if your employer did not reimburse you for your moving expenses and you had to move at least 50 miles to obtain that position, prior to 2018, you were allowed to deduct those expenses when you filed your taxes and you were not required to itemize to capture the deduction. However, this expense will no longer be deductible even for employees that are not reimbursed by their employer for the move starting in 2018.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Are The New Trade Tariffs Good Or Bad For The Stock Market?

US businesses often imports their manufactured goods from China. This is because the cost of manufacturing products is much lower than in other places so they want to take advantage of this. The government makes money off this relationship by imposing tariffs on certain products coming into the US. President Trump announced on March 8, 2018 that the United States will begin imposing a tariff on steel and aluminum imported into the U.S. from countries other than Mexico and Canada.  The tariff on steel will be 25% and 10% on aluminum. There are two main questions that we will seek to answer in this article:

• What happened the last time the U.S. implemented trade tariffs?

• How will the stock market react to the new trade barriers?

What Is A Tariff?

First, let's do a quick recap on what a tariff is. A tariff is a special tax on goods that come into the United States. Tariffs are imposed to make select foreign goods more expensive in an effort to encourage the U.S. consumer to buy more American made goods. For example, if the government puts a 25% tariff on cars that are imported into the U.S., that BMW that was manufactured in Germany and shipped over to the U.S. and sold to you for $70,000 will now cost $87,500 for that same exact car due to the 25% tariff. As a consumer this may cause you not to buy that BMW and instead buy a Corvette that was manufactured in the U.S. and carries a lower price tag.

What Does History Tell Us?

history of tariffs in the US

It’s very clear from this chart that the U.S. has not imposed meaningful tariffs since the early 1900’s. Conclusion, it’s going to be very difficult to predict how these tariffs are going to impact the U.S. economy and global trade. Even though we have some historical references, the world is very different today compared to 1930. The “global economy” did not even really exist back then.

As you can see in the chart, the average import trade tariff in 1930 was about 20%. Since 1975, the average trade tariff on imports has been below 5%. More recently, between 2000 and 2016 the average tariff on imports was below 2%.

History Will Not Be A Useful Guide

As an investment manager, when a big financial event takes place, we start to scour through historical data to determine what happened in the past when a similar event took place. While we have had tariffs implemented in the past, many of those tariffs were implemented for reasons other than the ones that are driving the U.S. trade policy today.

Prior to 1914, tariffs were used primarily to generate revenue for the U.S. government. In 1850, tariffs represented 91% of the government’s total revenue mainly because there was no income tax back then. By 1900 that percentage had dropped to 41%. As many of us are well aware, over time, the main source of revenue for the government has shifted to the receipt of income and payroll taxes with tariff revenue only representing about 2% of the government’s total receipts.

During the Industrial Revolution (1760 – 1840), tariffs were used to protect the new U.S. industries that were in their infancy. Without tariffs it would have been very difficult for these new industries that were just starting in the U.S. colonies to compete with the price of goods coming from Europe. Tariffs were used to boost the domestic demand for steel, wool, and other goods that were being produced in the U.S. colonies. These trade policies helped the new industries get off the ground, expand the workforce, and led to a prosperous century of economic growth.

Today, tariffs are being used for a different reason. To protect our mature industries from the risk of extinction as a result of foreign competition. Since the 1950’s, the global economy has evolved and the trade policies of the U.S. have been largely in support of free trade. While this sounds like a positive approach, free trade policies have taken their toll on a number of industries here in the U.S. such as steel, automobiles, and electronics. Foreign countries like China have access to cheap labor and they are able to produce select goods and services at a much lower cost than here in the United States.

While this a good thing for the U.S. consumer because you can purchase a big screen TV made in China for a lot less than that same TV made in the U.S., there are negative side effects. First and foremost are the U.S. jobs that are lost when a company decides that it can produce the same product for a lot less over in China. We have seen this trend play out over the past 20 or 30 years. Tariffs can help protect some of those U.S. jobs because it makes products purchased from foreign manufactures more expensive and it increases the demand for U.S. goods. The downside to that is the consumer may be asked to pay more for those same products since at the end of the day it costs more to produce those products in the U.S.

In the announcement of the steel and aluminum tariffs yesterday, the White House also acknowledged the national security risk of certain industries facing extinction in the United States. Below is a chart of production of steel in the U.S. from 1970 – 2016.

As you can see in the chart, our economy has grown dramatically over this time period but we are producing half the amount of steel in the U.S. that we were 47 years ago. If everything stayed the same, this reduction in the U.S. production of steel would probably continue. It begs the question, what happens 50 years from now if there is a global conflict and we are unable to build tanks, jets, and ships because we import 100% of our steel from China and they decide to shut off the supply? There are definitely certain industries that we will always need to protect here in the U.S. even though they may be “cheaper” to buy somewhere else.

There is also monopoly risk. Once we have to import 100% of a particular good or service, those producers have 100% pricing power over us. While I would be less concerned over TV’s and electronics, I would be more concerned over items like cars, foods, building materials, and other items that many of us consider a necessity to our everyday lives.

Free or Fair?

While we have had “free” trade policies over the past few decades, have they been “fair”? Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, recently highlighted that “China isn’t playing fair in the car trade with the U.S.” He goes on to point out that China puts a 25% import tariff on American cars sold to China but the U.S. only has a 2.5% import tariff on cars that are manufactured in China and sold in the U.S.

In response to this, Trump mentioned in his speech that the U.S. will be pursuing “reciprocal” or “mirror” trade policies. Meaning, if a country puts a 25% tariff on U.S. goods imported into their country, the U.S. would put a 25% tariff on those same goods that are imported from their country into the U.S.

Trade Wars

While the reciprocal trade policies seem fair on the surface and it also makes sense to protect industries that are vital to our national security, the greatest risk of transitioning from a “free trade” policy to “protectionism” policy is trade wars. We just put a 25% tariff on all of the steel that is imported from China, how is China going to respond to that? Remember, the U.S. is part of a global economy and trade is important. How important? When you look at the gross revenue of all of the companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, over 50% of their revenue now comes from outside the U.S. If all of a sudden, foreign countries start putting tariffs on U.S. goods sold aboard, that could have a big negative impact on the corporate earnings of our big multinational corporations in the United States. In addition, when you listen to the quarterly earnings calls from companies like Apple, Nike, Pepsi, and Ford, the future growth of those companies are relying heavily on their ability to sell their products to the growing consumer base in the emerging market. Countries like China, India, Russia, and Brazil.

I go back to my initial point, that history will not be a great guide for us here. We have not used tariffs in a very long period of time and the reason why we are using tariffs now is different than it was in the past. Plus the world has changed. There is no clear way to know at this point if these new tariffs are going to help or hurt the U.S. economy over the next year because a lot depends on how these foreign countries respond to the United States moving away from the long standing era of free trade.

Canada & Mexico Exempt

The White House announced yesterday that Canada and Mexico would be exempt from the new tariffs. Why? This is my guess and it's only guess, the U.S. is currently in the process of negotiating the NAFTA terms with Canada and Mexico. NAFTA stands for the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump has made it clear that if we cannot obtain favorable trade terms, the U.S. will exit the NAFTA agreement. The U.S. may use the recent tariff announcement as a negotiation tool in the talks with Canada and Mexico on NAFTA. "Listen, we gave you an exemption but if you don't give us favorable trade terms, all deals are off."

Coin Flip

While tax reform seems like a clear win for U.S. corporations, only history will tell us whether or not these new trade policies will help or harm the U.S. economy. If we are able to protect more U.S. jobs, protect industries vital to the growth and protection of the U.S., and negotiate better trade deals with our trading partners, we may look back and realize this was the right move at the right time.On the flip side of the coin, if trade wars break out that could lead to a decrease in the demand for U.S. goods around the globe that may cause the U.S. to lose more jobs than it is trying to protect. As a result, that could put downward pressure on corporate earnings and in turn send stock prices lower in the U.S. Only time will tell.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

More Taxpayers Will Qualify For The Child Tax Credit

There is great news for parents in the middle to upper income tax brackets.  The new tax law dramatically increased the income phase-out threshold for claiming the child tax credit.  In 2017, parents were eligible for a $1,000 tax credit for each child under the age of 17 as long as their adjusted gross income (“AGI”) was below $75,000 for single filers and $110,000 for married couples filing a joint return.  If your AGI was above those amounts, the $1,000 credit was reduced by $50 for every $1,000 of income above those thresholds.    In other words, the child tax credit completely phased out for a single filer with an AGI greater than $95,000 and for a married couple with an AGI greater than $130,000. 

Note:  If you are not sure what the amount of your AGI is, it’s the bottom line on the first page of your tax return (Form 1040). 

New Phaseout Thresholds Beginning In 2018

Starting in 2018 and for years going forward, the new phaseout thresholds for the Child Tax Credit begin at the following AGI levels:

Single Filer: $200,000

Married Filing Joint: $400,000

If your AGI falls below these thresholds, you are eligible for the full Child Tax Credit.  For taxpayers with an AGI amount that exceeds these thresholds, the phaseout calculation is the same as 2017.  The credit is reduced by $50 for every $1,000 in income over the AGI threshold.

Wait......It Gets Better

Not only will more families now qualify for the child tax credit but the amount of the credit was doubled.  The new tax law increased the credit from $1,000 to $2,000 for each child under the age of 17.

In 2025, a married couple, with three children, with an AGI of $200,000, would have received nothing for the child tax credit.  Now, that same family will receive a $6,000 tax credit. That’s huge!! Remember,  “tax credits” are more valuable than “tax deductions”.  Tax credits reduce your tax liability dollar for dollar whereas tax deductions just reduce the amount of your income subject to taxation.

This information is for educational purposes only.  Please consult your accountant for personal tax advice.  

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

How Much Will Your Paycheck Increase In 2018?

U.S taxpayers have a big reason to celebrate this week. By the end of February, you should see your paycheck increase. The government released the new payroll withholding tables this week which will lower the amount of taxes withheld from your paycheck and increase your take home pay.  Naturally the next question is "How much will my paycheck go up?" Out of curiously, I spent my Saturday morning comparing the 2017 tax tables to the new 2018 tax tables to answer that question. Yes, this is what nerds do on their weekends.

The Calculation

Like most financial calculations, it's long and boring. I will provide you with the cliff notes version. The government provides your company with tax withholding tables that they enter into the payroll system. It tells your employer how much to withhold in fed taxes from each pay check. The three main variables in the calculation are:

• Payroll frequency (weekly, bi-weekly, etc)

• The number of withholding allowances that you claim

• The amount of your pay

Single Filers or Head of Household

If you are a single or head of household tax filer, I ran the following calculations based on a bi-weekly payroll schedule and an employee claiming one withholding allowance. The table below illustrates how much your annual take home pay may increase under the new tax withholding tables at various salary levels.

withholding tables - single filer

Based on this analysis, it looks like a single filer’s paycheck will increase between 2% – 3% as soon as the new withholding tables are entered into the payroll system. If you want to know how much your bi-weekly pay will increase, just take the annual numbers listed above and divide them by 26 pay periods. If the payroll frequency at your company is something other than bi-weekly or you claim more than one withholding allowance, your percentage increase in take home pay will deviate from the table listed above.

Married Couples Filing Joint

For employees that are married and file a joint tax return, below is the calculations based on a bi-weekly payroll schedule and two withholding allowances. The table below illustrates how much your annual take home pay may increase under the new tax withholding tables at various salary levels.

payroll tax withholding table - married

Even though I added an additional withholding allowance in the calculation for the married employee, I was surprised that the “range” of the percentage increase in the take home pay for a married employee was noticeably wider than a single tax filer. As you will see in the table above, the increase in take home pay for an employee in this category range from 1.5% – 3.1%.

Another interesting observation, in the single filer table, the percentage increase in take home pay actually diminished as the employee’s annual compensation increased. In contrast, for the married employee, the percentage increase in annual take home pay gradually increased as the employee’s annual salary increased. Conclusion…..get married in 2018? Nothing says love like new withholding tables.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Business Owners: Strategies To Reduce Your Taxable Income To Qualify For The New 20% Qualified Business Income Deduction

Many small business owners have a QBI 20% deduction available for their pass-through income, but you may need to position your business to take full advantage of this lucrative tax deduction. It’s important to be aware that the Qualified Business Income ("QBI") deduction has taxable income thresholds. Once the owner's personal taxable income exceeds specific dollar amounts, the 20% deduction will either phase out or trigger an alternative calculation that could lower the deduction.

The Taxable Income Thresholds

Regardless of whether you are considered a “services business” or “non-services business” under the new tax law, you will need to be aware of the following income thresholds:

Individual: $197,300

Married: $394,600

These threshold amounts are based on the “total taxable income” listed on the tax return of the business owner. Not “AGI” and not just the pass-through income from the business. Total taxable income. For example, if I make $100,000 in net profit from my business and my wife makes $400,000 in W-2 income, our total taxable income on our married filing joint tax return is going to be way over the $394,600 threshold. So do we completely lose the 20% deduction on the $100,000 in pass-through income from the business? Maybe not!!

The Safe Zone

For many business owners, to maximize the new 20% deduction, they will do everything that they can to keep their total taxable income below the thresholds. This is what I call the “safe zone”. If you keep your total taxable income below these thresholds, you will be allowed to take your total qualified business income, multiply it by 20%, and you’re done. Once you get above these thresholds, the 20% deduction will either begin to phase out or it will trigger the alternative 50% of W-2 income calculation which may reduce the deduction.  The phase out ranges are listed below:

Individuals: $197,300 to $247,300

Married: $394,600 to $494,600

As you get closer to the top of the range the deduction begins to completely phase out for “services businesses” and for “non-services business” the “lesser of 20% of QBI or 50% of wages paid to employees” is fully phased in.

What Reduces "Total Taxable Income"?

There are four main tools that business owners can use to reduce their total taxable income:

• Standard Deduction or Itemized Deductions

• Self-Employment Tax

• Retirement Plan Contributions

• Timing Expenses

Standard & Itemized Deductions

Since tax reform eliminated many of the popular tax deductions that business owners have traditionally used to reduce their taxable income, for the first time in 2018, a larger percentage of business owners elected to take the standard deduction instead of itemizing. You do not need to itemize to capture the 20% deduction for your qualified business income. This will allow business owners to take the higher standard deduction and still capture the 20% deduction on their pass-through income. Whether you take the standard deduction or continue to itemize, those deductions will reduce your taxable income for purposes of the QBI income thresholds.

Example: You are a business owner, you are married, and your only source of income is $400,000 from your single member LLC. At first look, it would seem that your total income is above the $383,900 threshold and you are subject to the phase out calculation. However, if you elect the standard deduction for a married couple filing joint, that will reduce your $400,000 in gross income by the $30,000 standard deduction which brings your total taxable income down to $370,000. Landing you below the threshold and making you eligible for the full 20% deduction on your qualified business income.

The point of this exercise is for business owners to understand that if your gross income is close to the beginning of the phase out threshold, somewhere within the phase out range, or even above the phase out range, there may be some relief in the form of the standard deduction or your itemized deductions.

Self-Employment Tax

Depending on how your business is incorporated, you may be able to deduct half of the self-employment tax that you pay on your pass-through income. Sole proprietors, LLCs, and partnership would be eligible for this deduction. Owners of S-corps receive W2 wages to satisfy the reasonable compensation requirement and receive pass-through income that is not subject to self-employment tax. So this deduction is not available for S-corps.

The self-employment tax deduction is an “above the line” deduction which means that you do not need to itemize to capture the deduction. The deduction is listed on the first page of your 1040 and it reduces your AGI.

Example: You are a partner at a law firm, not married, the entity is taxed as a partnership, and your gross income is $250,000. Like the previous example, it looks like your income is over the $197,300 threshold for a single tax filer. But you have yet to factor in your tax deductions. For simplicity, let’s assume you take the standard deduction:

Total Pass-Through Income: $250,000

Less Standard Deduction: ($15,000)

Less 50% Self-Employ Tax: ($15,000) $200,000 x 7.5% = $15,000

Total Taxable Income: $220,000

While your total taxable income did not get you below the $197,300 threshold, you are now only mid-way through the phase out range so you will capture a portion of the 20% deduction on your pass-through income.

Retirement Plans – "The Golden Goose"

Retirement plans will be the undisputed Golden Goose for purposes of reducing your taxable income for purposes of the qualified business income deduction. Take the example that we just went through with the attorney in the previous section. Now, let’s assume that same attorney maxes out their pre-tax employee deferrals in the company’s 401(k) plan. The limit in 2025 for employees under the age of 50 is $23,500.

Total Pass-Through Income: $250,000

Less Standard Deduction: ($15,000)

Less 50% Self-Employ Tax: ($15,000)

Pre-Tax 401(k) Contribution: ($23,500)

Total Taxable Income: $196,500

Jackpot!! That attorney has reduced their taxable income below the $197,300 QBI threshold and they will be eligible to take the full 20% deduction against their pass-through income.

Retirement plan contributions are being looked at in a new light starting since 2018. Not only are you reducing your tax liability by shelter your income from taxation but now, under the new rules, you are simultaneously increasing your QBI deduction amount.

When tax reform was in the making there were rumors that Congress may drastically reduce the contribution limits to retirement plans. Thankfully this did not happen. Long live the goose!!

Start Planning Now

Knowing that this Golden Goose exists, business owners will need to ask themselves the following questions:

• How much should I plan on contributing to my retirement accounts this year?

• Is the company sponsoring the right type of retirement plan?

• Should we be making changes to the plan design of our 401(k) plan?

• How much will the employer contribution amount to the employees increase if we try to max out the pre-tax contributions for the owners?

Business owners are going to need to engage investment firms and TPA firms that specialize in employer sponsored retirement plan. Up until now, sponsoring a Simple IRA, SEP IRA, or 401(K), as a way to defer some income from taxation has worked but tax reform will require a deeper dive into your retirement plan. The golden question:

“Is the type of retirement plan that I’m currently sponsoring through my company the right plan that will allow me to maximize my tax deductions under the new tax laws taking into account contribution limits, admin fees, and employer contributions to the employees.”

If you are not familiar with all of the different retirement plans that are available for small businesses, please read our article “Comparing Different Types Of Employer Sponsored Plans”.

DB / DC Combo Plans Take Center Stage

While DB/DC Combo plans have been around for a number of years, you will start to hear more about them going forward. A DB/DC Combo plan is a combination of a Defined Benefit Plan (Pension Plan) and a Defined Contribution Plan (401k Plan). While pension plans are usually only associated with state and government employers or large companies, small companies are eligible to sponsor pension plans as well. Why is this important? These plans will allow small business owners that have total taxable income well over the QBI thresholds to still qualify for the 20% deduction.

While defined contribution plans limit an owner’s aggregate pre-tax contribution to $70,000 per year in 2025 ($77,500 for owners age 50+), DB/DC Combo plans allow business owners to make annual pre-tax contributions ranging from $60,000 – $345,000 per year. Yes, per year!!

Example: A married business owner makes $600,000 per year and has less than 5 full time employees. Depending on their age, that business owner may be able to implement a DB/DC Combo plan prior to December 31, 2025, make a pre-tax contribution to the plan of $345,000, and reduce their total taxable income below the $383,900 QBI threshold.

Key items to make these plans work:

• You need to have the cash to make the larger contributions each year

• These DB/DC plan needs to stay in existence for at least 3 years

• This plan design usually works for smaller employers (less than 10 employees)

Shelter Your Spouse's W-2 Income

It's not uncommon for a business owner to have a spouse that earns W-2 wages from employment outside of the family business. Remember, the QBI thresholds are based on total taxable income on the joint tax return. If you think you are going to be close to the phase out threshold, you may want to encourage your spouse to start putting as much as they possibly can pre-tax into their employer's retirement plan. Unlike self-employment income, W-2 income is what it is. Whatever the number is on the W-2 form at the end of the year is what you have to report as income. By contrast, business owners can increase expenses in a given year, delay bonuses into the next tax year, and deploy other income/expense maneuvers to play with the amount of taxable income that they are showing for a given tax year.

Timing Expenses

One of the last tools that small business owners can use to reduce their taxable income is escalating expense. Now, it would be foolish for businesses to just start spending money for the sole purpose of reducing income. However, if you are a dental practice and you were planning on purchasing some new equipment in 2025 and purchasing a software system in 2026, depending on where your total taxable income falls, you may have a tax incentive to purchase both the equipment and the software system all in 2025. As you get toward the end of the tax year, it might be worth making that extra call to your accountant, before spending money on those big ticket items. The timing of those purchases could have big impact on your QBI deduction amount.

Disclosure: The information in this article is for educational purposes. For tax advice, please consult your tax advisor.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

What Does Tax Reform Mean For The Markets In 2018?

2017 ended up being a huge year for the U.S. stock market.  The rally in the stock market was unmistakably driven by the anticipated passing of tax reform and Congress delivered. However, the sheer magnitude of the stock market rally has presented investors with a moment of pause and a lot of unanswered questions as we enter into the first quarter of 2018. The two main questions being:

• What does tax reform mean for the markets in 2018?

• We are now in the second longest economic expansion of ALL TIME!!! I know what goes up, eventually comes down. Are we overdue for a major correction in the stock market?

Without a crystal ball, no one knows for sure. However, the purpose of this article is to identify indicators in the economy and the financial markets that may help us gauge the direction of the U.S. economy and equity markets as we progress through 2018.

Tax Reform: Uncharted Waters

While tax reform is a welcome friend for corporate America, we have to acknowledge that this also puts us in uncharted waters. Looking back, there has never been a time in history where the U.S. has injected fiscal stimulus (tax reform) into an economy that is already healthy. The last major tax reform was in the early 1980’s when the U.S. economy was trying to dig itself out of the long 1970’s recession.

When the economy is in a recession, the U.S. can either inject fiscal stimulus or monetary stimulus to get the economy growing again. The U.S. used monetary stimulus to dig us out of the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009. They lowered interest rates to basically 0%, pumped cash into the economy in the form of bond buying, and provided a financial back stop for the U.S. banking system.

These economic stimulus tools are similar to the concept of giving a patient in a hospital a shot of adrenaline. If a patient is flat lining, it provides that patient with a huge surge of energy. The patient’s body goes from 0% to 60%+ in under a minute. So what happens when you give someone who is completely healthy a shot of adrenaline? Do they go from 100% to 110%? My point is a healthy patient does not go from 100% to 160%. Both patients get a boost but the boost to the healthy patient is much lower as a percentage of where they started.

While we have never given the U.S. economy an adrenaline shot after a long economic expansion, I think it’s reasonable to apply the same general concept as our two hospital patients. Tax reform may very well lead to another year of positive returns for the stock market in 2018 but I think it’s very important for investors to set a reasonable expectation of return for the U.S. equity markets given the fact that we are injecting growth into an economy that is already at “full employment”.

Not Enough Workers

One of the greatest challenges that the U.S. economy may face in 2018 is a shortage of qualified workers. Prior to tax reform being passed, companies both large and small, have had plenty of job openings but have not been able to find the employees with the skills necessary to fill those positions.

For example, if Apple had 1000 job openings in November 2017 just to meet the current demand for their goods and services but in 2018, due to tax reform, consumers have more money to spend, and the demand for Apple products increases further, Apple may need to find another 2000 employee to meet the increase in demand. They are having trouble now finding the 1000 employees to meet their current demand, how are they going to find another 2000 quick enough in 2018 to meet the increase in demand? If they can’t make the phones, they can’t sell the phones. Fewer sales equals less revenue, which equals less net profit, which may lead to a lower appreciation rate of the stock price. For disclosure purposes, I’m not picking on Apple. I’m just highlighting an issue that may be common among the companies that make up the S&P 500 Index if tax reform leads to a spike in demand in 2018. If Wall Street is expecting accelerated earnings, how are the companies expected to deliver those enhanced earnings without the employees that they need to increase supply?

The unemployment rate in the U.S. is currently 4.1%. You have to go all the way back to the late 1960’s to find an employment rate below 4%. So we are essentially at “full employment”.

Rising Wages

The blue line in the chart above is also very important. The blue line represents wage growth. This answers the question: "Are people making more for doing the same amount of work?" If you look back historically on the chart, when the unemployment rate was falling, typically wage growth was increasing. It makes sense. When the economy is good and the job market is healthy, companies have to pay their employees more to keep them. Otherwise they will go work for a competitor, who has 10 job openings, and they get paid more. Wage growth is good for employees but it's bad for companies. For companies, employee wages are usually their largest expense. If you increase wages, you are increasing expenses, which decreases profits. Lower profits typically results in lower stock prices. Companies in 2017 had the luxury of strong demand but limited wage growth. My guess is you will begin to see meaningful wage growth in 2018 as companies see an increase in demand as a result of tax reform and end up having to raise wages to retain and attract employees. This is just another reason why 2018 may be a good year for the stock market but not a great one.

What Fuels GDP Growth?

Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") is the economic indicator that is used to measure how much the U.S. economy produces in a year. It's how we gauge whether our economy is growing or contracting. Since March 2009, the GDP growth rate has averaged about 2.2% per year. This is subpar by historic standards. In most economic expansions, GDP is growing at an annual rate of 4%+.

Before we get into what pieces of tax reform may help to increase the GDP growth rate, let us first look at what GDP is made of. Our GDP is comprised of 5 categories (for my fellow econ nerds that assign 4 categories to GDP, we split capital spending into two separate categories):

• Consumption or "Consumer Spending" 69.1%

• Government Spending (includes defense) 17.3%

• Investment (ex-housing) – "Business Spending 12.7%

• Housing 3.8%

• Net Exports -2.9%

Consumer Spending (+)

Consumer spending which makes up 69.1% of our GDP should increase as a result of tax reform in 2018. In general, if people have more discretionary income, they will spend all or a portion of it. Tax reform will lower the tax bill, for not all, but many U.S. households, increasing their disposable income.  Also, if we see an increase in wage growth in 2018, people will be taking home more in their paychecks, allowing them to spend more.

Dr James Kelly, the chief economist of JP Morgan, made a very interesting observation about the evolution of the tax bill. When the tax bills were in their proposed state, one for the Senate and a separate bill for the House, each bill to stay under the $1.5 Trillion 10 year debt cap reduced taxes by about $150 Billion dollars per year. 50% of the annual tax reduction was going to businesses with the other 50% going to individual tax payers.

In order to get the bill passed before the end of the year, Congress was forced to shift a larger proportion of the $150 billion in tax brakes per year to individual taxpayers. In the tax bill’s final form, Dr Kelly estimated that approximately 75% of the tax reductions were now being retained by individual taxpayers with only 25% going to businesses. With a larger proportion of the tax breaks going to individual taxpayers that could increase the amount of discretionary income available to the U.S. consumer.

Government Spending (Push)

The anticipated increase in government spending really stems from the Trump agenda that has been communicated. One of the items that he campaigned on was increasing government spending on infrastructure. At this point we do not have many details as to when the infrastructure spending will begin or how much will be spent. Whatever ends up happening, we are not forecasting a dramatic increase or decrease in government spending in 2018.

Investment - Business Spending (+)

Even though business spending only represents 12.7% of our GDP, we could see a sizable increase in spending by businesses in 2018 for the following reasons:

• Corporate tax rate is reduced from 35% to 21%

• The repatriation tax will allow companies to bring cash back from overseas at a low tax rate

• Prior to tax reform, companies already had historically high levels of cash on their balance sheet. What are they going to do with more cash? (See the chart below)

If having more cash was not a large enough incentive by itself for companies to spend money, the new tax rules allowing immediate expensing of the full cost of most assets purchased for the next five years should be. Under the current tax rules, when a business purchases a new piece of equipment, a fleet of trucks, office furniture, whatever it is, the IRS does not allow them to deduct 100% of purchase price in the year that they buy it. They have to follow a "depreciation schedule" and they can only realize a piece of that expense each year. The current tax rules put companies at a tax disadvantage because companies are always trying to shelter as much income as possible from taxation. If Company XYZ buys a piece of equipment that cost $1,000,000, the IRS may require Company XYZ to depreciate that expense over a 10 year period. Meaning they can only realize $100,000 in expenses each year over that 10 year period, even though they already paid the full $1,000,000 for that new piece of equipment.Under the new tax reform, if Company XYZ buys that same new piece of equipment for $1,000,000, they can deduct the full $1,000,000 expense against their income in 2018. Whoa!!! That's huge!! Yes it is and it's a big incentive for companies to spend money over the next five years.

Housing & Net Exports (Push)

We do not expect any significant change from either of these two categories and they represent the smallest portion of our total GDP.

Watch GDP In 2018

The GDP growth rate in 2018 may give us the first indication as to how many "extra innings" we have left in this already long bull market rally. If we do not see a meaningful acceleration in the annual growth rate of GDP above its 2.2% average rate, the rally could be very short lived. On the flip side, if due to tax reform consumer spending and business spending leaps forward in 2018 and 2019, we may be witnessing the longest economic expansion of all time. Time will tell.

Share Buybacks

You will undoubtedly hear a lot about “Share Buybacks” in 2018. Remember, U.S. corporations will most likely have piles of cash on their balance sheets. Instead of spending that money on hiring new employees, buying new equipment, or building a new plant, what else might they do with the cash? The answer, share buybacks.

If a public company like Nike has extra cash, they can go into the market, purchase their own stock, and then get rid of those outstanding shares. Basically it increases the earnings per share for the remaining shareholders.

Example: Let’s assume there are only 4 shares of Nike owned by 4 different people and Nike is worth $100,000. That means that each shareholder is entitled to 25% of that $100,000 or $25,000 each. Now because of tax reform, Nike has $50,000 of extra cash just sitting in its coffers that it otherwise would have paid to the government in taxes. Nike can go into the market with $50,000, purchase 2 shares back from 2 of the shareholders (assuming they would be willing to sell), and then “retire” those two outstanding shares. After that is done, there are 2 outstanding shares remaining but the value of Nike did not change. So the two remaining shareholders, without paying anything extra, now own 50% of Nike, and their shares are worth $50,000 each.

Share buyback may push stock prices higher from a simple math standpoint. If the formula is the value of the company divided by the number of shares outstanding, the fewer shares there are, assuming the value of the company stays the same, the price per share will go up.   The incentive for these share buybacks will most likely be there in 2018. Not only will companies have the cash but share buybacks are a way that public companies can reward their current shareholders..

Is The Stock Market Too Expensive?

The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index is another barometer that investors will need to keep a close eye on in 2018. P/E ratios help us to answer the questions: “Is the stock market cheap, fairly valued, or expensive at this point?” The “Forward P/E Ratio” divides the price of a stock by the estimated future 12 months of earnings. The average Forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 Index between December 1989 – September 30, 2017 was 16.0. As of December 22, 2017, the Forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index is 19.99. In other words, it’s running at 25% above its 25 year historic average. See the chart below:

Conclusion, the U.S. stock market is not “cheap” and it’s a stretch to even classify it as “fairly valued”. I think we are well into what I would consider “expensive territory”. What does that mean for investors? You have to stay on your toes!!

Now, we have an anomaly in the mix with tax reform and history does not speak to how this could play out. If tax reform leads to an acceleration in corporate earnings, that in turn could slow the steady climb in the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 because earnings are the denominator in the formula. If stock prices and earnings are accelerating at the same pace, the stock market can go up without a further acceleration of the P/E ratio. Thus, keeping the stock market from becoming more overpriced and further increasing the risk of owning stocks in the S&P 500.

Summary

In 2018, investors should keep a close eye on the U.S. GDP growth rate, the level of spending by corporations and consumers, the volume of share buybacks by U.S. companies, and the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Tax Reform Could Lead To A Spike In The Divorce Rate In 2018

The Tax Cut & Jobs Act that was recently passed has already caused taxpayers to accelerate certain financial decisions as we transition from the current tax laws to the new tax laws over the course of the next two years.

Current Tax Law: Alimony Is Tax Deductible

Under the current tax law, alimony payments are taxable income to the ex-spouse receiving the payments and they are tax deductible to the ex-spouse making the payments. When alimony is awarded pursuant to a divorce, it’s typically because there was a disparity in the level of income between the two spouses during the marriage. The ex-spouse paying the alimony, in most cases, is the higher income earning spouse both before and after the divorce finalized.

Let’s look at this in a real life example. Jim and Sarah have decided to get a divorce. Jim makes $300,000 per year and Sarah is a homemaker with $0 income. Pursuant to the divorce agreement, Jim will be required to pay Sarah $50,000 per year for 5 years. Jim will be able to deduct the $50,000 each year against his taxable income and Sarah will claim the $50,000 as taxable income on her tax return. Based on the 2018 Individual Tax Brackets, the top end of Jim’s income is in the 35% tax bracket. Thus, paying $50,000 in alimony really results in an “after-tax” expense to Jim of $32,500.

$50,000 x 35% = $17,500 (fed tax savings)

$50,000 – $17,500 = $32,500 (after tax expense to Jim)

Sarah will claim that $50,000 in alimony payments as income and let’s assume that the alimony payments are her only income for the year. Next year, as a single filer, Sarah will receive a standard deduction of $12,000, and the remainder of the $38,000 will be taxed at a blend of her 10% & 12% tax rate. As a result, Sarah will only pay about $4,400 in taxes on the $50,000 in alimony income.

To sum it all up, if the $50,000 is taxed to Sarah, approximately $4,400 will be paid to the IRS in taxes and she nets $45,600 in after tax income. However, if Jim was not able to deduct the alimony payments and had to pay tax on that $50,000, he would first have to pay the $17,500 in taxes to the IRS, and then he would hand Sarah a check for $32,500 after tax. Sarah is worse off because she received less after tax income. Jim would ultimately be worse off because he would need to part with more pre-tax income to create the same after tax benefit for Sarah. The IRS is the only one that wins.

Gaming The System

Since divorce agreements, in most states, are not required to adhere to predefined calculations for splitting assets, alimony payments, and in some cases child support, the tax game can be played when there is a high income earning spouse and alimony payments in the mix. In exchange for fewer assets or less child support, some divorce agreements have purposefully shifted more to alimony. The ex-spouse with the big income gets a bigger tax deduction and the ex-spouse receiving the alimony payment is able to take full advantage of their lower tax brackets and maximize their after tax income.

Alimony Is No Longer Deductible

To stop the tax game, included in the new tax bill was a provision that specifically states that alimony payments will no longer be deductible by the payor, nor reportable as income by the recipient, for divorce agreements signed after December 31, 2018.

The good news is this will not impact the ability to deduct alimony payments for divorce agreements that are currently in place. The bad news is for divorce agreements signed after December 31, 2018, the high income earner will no longer be able to deduct the alimony payments. That eliminates the tax arbitrage that has been used in the past to make the pie larger for both spouses. In general, if you shrink the size of the asset and income pie, it leaves more to fight about because each spouse is trying to preserve their standard of living as much as possible post-divorce.

For couples that have been sitting on the fence about getting divorced, this could be the catalyst to start the process in 2018 to make sure they have a signed agreement prior to December 31, 2018.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Tax Reform: Changes To 529 Accounts & Coverdell IRA's

Due to a recent tax bill, there were some changes made to the tax treatment of 529 accounts and Coverdell IRAs. Traditionally, if you used the balance in the 529 account to pay for a "qualified expense", the earnings portion of the account was tax and penalty free, which is the largest benefit to using a 529 account as a savings vehicle for college. So what's the change? Prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (tax reform), qualified distributions were only allowed for certain expenses associated with the account beneficiary's college education. Starting in 2018, 529 plans can also be used to pay for qualified expenses for elementary, middle school, and high school.

Kindergarten – 12th Grade Expenses

Tax reform included a provision that will allow owners of 529 accounts to take tax-free distributions from 529 accounts for K–12 expenses for the beneficiary named on the account. This is new for 529 accounts. Prior to this provision, 529 accounts could only be used for college expenses. Now 529 account holders can distribute up to $10,000 per student per year for K – 12 qualified expenses. Another important note, this is not limited to expenses associated with private schools. K – 12 qualified expense will be allowed for:

• Private School

• Public School

• Religious Schools

• Homeschooling

529 Accounts Will Largely Replace Coverdell IRA's

Prior to this rule change, the only option that parents had to save and accumulate money tax-free to K – 12 expenses for their children were Coverdell IRA's. But Coverdell IRA's had a lot of hang-ups

• Contributions were limited to $2,000 per year

• You could only contribute to a Coverdell IRA if your income was below certain limits

• You could not contribute to the Coverdell IRA after your child turned 18

• Account balance had to be spent by the time the student was age 30

By contrast, 529 accounts offer a lot more flexibility and higher contribution limits. For example, 529 accounts have no contribution limits. The only limits that account owners need to be aware of are the "gifting limits," since contributions to 529 accounts are considered a "gift" to the beneficiary listed on the account. In 2025, the annual gift exclusion will be $19,000. However, 529 accounts have a provision that allow account owners to make a "5 year election". This election allows account owners to make an upfront contribution of up to 5 times the annual gift exclusion for each beneficiary without trigger the need to file a gift tax return. In 2025, a married couple could contribution up to $190,000 for each child to a 529 account without trigger a gift tax return.If I have a child in private school, they are in 6th grade, and I'm paying $20,000 in tuition each year, that means I have $140,000 that I'm going to spend in tuition between 6th grade – 12th grade and then I have college tuition to pile on top of that amount. Instead of saving that money in an after-tax investment account, which is not tax sheltered, and I pay capital gains tax when I liquidate the account to pay those expenses, why not set up a 529 account and shelter that huge dollar amount from income tax? It will probably save me thousands, if not tens of thousands of dollars in taxes, in taxes over the long run. Plus, if I live in a state that allows tax deductions for 529 contributions, I get that benefit as well.

Income Limits and Tax Deductions

Unlike Coverdell IRA's, 529 accounts do not have income restrictions for making contributions. Plus, some states have a state tax deduction for contributions to 529 account. In New York, a married couple filing jointly receives a state tax deduction for up to $10,000 for contributions to a 529 account. A quick note, that is $10,000 in aggregate, not $10,000 per child or per account.

Rollovers Count Toward State Tax Deductions

Here is a fun fact. If you live in New York and you have a 529 account established in another state for your child, if you rollover the balance into a NYS 529 account, the rollover balance counts toward your $10,000 annual NYS state tax deduction. Also, you can rollover balances in Coverdell IRA's into 529 accounts and my guess is many people will elect to do so now that 529 account can be used for K – 12 expenses.

Contributions Beyond Age 18

Unlike a Coverdell IRA, which restricts contributions once the child reaches age 18, 529 accounts have no age restriction for contributions. We will often encourage clients to continue to contribute to their child's 529 account while they are attending college for the sole purpose of continuing to capture the state tax deduction. If you receive the tuition bill in the mail today for $10,000, you can send in a $10,000 check to your 529 account provider as a current year contribution, as soon as the check clears the account you can turn around and request a qualified withdrawal from the account for the tuition bill, and pay the bill with the cash that was distributed from the 529 account. A little extra work, but if you live in NYS and you are in a high tax bracket, that $10,000 deduction could save you $600 - $700 in state taxes.

What Happens If There Is Money Left In The 529 Account?

If there is money left over in a 529 account after the child has graduated from college, there are a number of options available. For more on this, see our article "5 Options For Money Left Over In College 529 Plans"

Qualified Expenses

The most frequent question that I get is "what is considered a qualified expense for purposes of tax-free withdrawals from a 529 account?" Here is a list of the most common:

• Tuition

• Room & Board

• Technology Items: Computers, Printers, Required Software

• Supplies: Books, Notebooks, Pens, Etc.

Just as important, here is a list of expenses that are NOT considered a "qualified expense" for purposes of tax-free withdrawals from a 529 account:

• Transportation & Travel: Expense of going back and forth from school / college

• Student Loan Repayment

• General Electronics and Cell Phone Plans

• Sports and Fitness Club Memberships

• Insurance

If there is ever a question as to whether or not an expense is a qualified expense, I would recommend that you contact the provider of your 529 account before making the withdrawal from your 529 account. If you take a withdrawal for an expense that is not a "qualified expense," you will pay income taxes and a 10% penalty on the earnings portion of the withdrawal.

Do I Have To Close My Coverdell IRA?

While 529 accounts have a number of advantages compared to Coverdell IRA's, current owners of Coverdell IRAs will not be required to close their accounts. They will continue to operate as they were intended. Like 529 accounts, Coverdell IRA withdrawals will also qualify for the tax-free distributions for K – 12 expenses including the provision for expenses associated with homeschooling.

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.